Yankees: Looking for the Future

Pitching Matchups:

Pettitte (3-3, 3.93 ERA) v. Carmona (3-1, 2.60 ERA)
Wang (6-0, 3.00 ERA) v. Lee (5-0, 0.96 ERA)
Mussina (4-3, 4.23 ERA) v. Byrd (1-2, 3.72 ERA)

The Yankees have historically done well against Carmona, one of the better sinkerballers in the AL. Pettitte did well until the 5th inning, when he melted down and allowed four runs. Wang v. Lee is a pitcher’s duel, and, based on how Wang did against Cleveland last time and also based on Lee’s ridiculous numbers, that’s a toss-up. Mussina did well junk-balling against the Indians, while pitchers like Byrd get some swings and misses against the Yankees, but there’s always that inning where a pitcher like him blows up against us.

PREDICTION: Yankees, 2 of 3. The Yankees lose Pettitte’s start but it’s not his fault, as one of the middle relievers (ahem LaTroy Hawkins) has a meltdown. The Yankees go on to win a tight one decided late against the Indians, and the last game is a high-scoring affair where the Yankees simply outscore their way through. Hopefully the Yankee offense is clicking by now.

Prior to this year, we thought that what we would get from Chien-Ming Wang and Melky Cabrera was all we were going to get throughout the primes of their careers. We knew Wang and his turbo sinker were going to get groundball outs against every team except the Red Sox and Blue Jays and that Melky would be a fringe starter with a rocket arm in CF. Or so we thought.

This year, Wang has matured as a pitcher, throwing more sliders and changeups, and even more of his mid-90’s 4-seamer while still using that sinker often. He’s getting better results–45IP, 38H, 13BB, but, more notably, 32Ks, or 6.4Ks/9. Previously that rate was below 3, and he was getting extreme amounts of groundballs, which, do to where they may land and the quality of a defense, aren’t dependable. Strikeouts are infinitely more dependable and can get a pitcher out of a tight spot really easily. While previously posting G/F rates of 2.96, 3.06, and 2.68 in his career, now he’s posting a more normal rate of 1.92. Now he has more ace potential, rather than just a really good #2.

Melky Cabrera’s development is even more shocking. He’s slugged .391 in back-to-back seasons, hitting 7 and 8 HRs in those seasons. He walked a combined 99 times and hit 1.48 and and 1.81 groundballs to flyballs. Everything has changed. Now he has 6HRs (the most notable change), is seeing a hair under 4 pitches per PA, and is hitting more balls in the air–1.08 G/F. What has led to this? Despite his height, he has bulked up to an even 200lbs, so some of those line drives become homers. But he is also swinging a bit harder and has better timing to make powerful contact, and he isn’t just swing as much with his arms. I am just now starting to see the Carlos Beltran comparisons, and while I don’t think he’ll ever hit 41 HRs, I could definitely see something like his age 24 season, with a bit less strikeouts and bit less steals. But this kid will be good, and there will be soon be a Major League OF glut.

When I first saw Phil Hughes on the DL, I thought that it was some sort of conspiracy just to get him to stop pitching while not having to deal with the potential ruckus of sending him to the minors. Turns out there’s more than just a quad strain, but also 2 broken ribs. Where’s the hammer, Brian ? He’ll be out until July.

This is a shame, because while he wasn’t pitching well, pitching is better than not pitching, and he needs to get himself squared away with his mechanics (which SabreScouting and Carlos Gomez have detailed well), and he definitely needs to throw more sliders and changeups.

In the meantime, Ian Kennedy was optioned down to AAA. While he is a nice prospect, he is hurting the team with his loading the bases seemingly once every start and showing too much Mike Mussina-ness (nibbling) in him. Darrell Rasner (0.87 ERA) is the better choice, and did well on Sunday.

Well, one month of the season has passed. We have seen question marks be answered, and some still unresolved. Now some observations on the top-30 prospects in the Yankees’s system.

Austin Jackson: AJax hasn’t quite lived up to last season’s flair. He hasn’t had many XBH (8 on the year) and has failed to homer. Understandably, his slugging is under .400, but he is batting a decent but unspectacular .267. An encouraging stat is that he has an 11:8 K:BB ratio, not too bad.

Jose Tabata: April has been a lost month for Tabata. He just served a 3-game suspension for throwing his bat down after striking out, and has batted .210/.303/.238. The average and slugging are really disappointing, but the isolated patience of .097 is a good sign. He hasn’t driven the ball at all, with only 3 doubles on the year, and has struck out more than twice as much as he’s walked.

Alan Horne: Not much sample size–has been on the DL with a mild oblique tear since his second start.

Dellin Betances: Betances is an intriguing prospect. This year he has been excellent in every category except in control. In 31.1IP (6 GS), he has allowed 18H, 9ER, 3HR, 21BB while striking out 41. He has a 1.00 GO/AO ratio, very good as well. His escape act in his ERA (2.59) is his lack of hitability and his ability to strike guys out to a tune of 11.9K/9. The walks are almost 2007 Kevin Whelan-esque. If you notice the IP:GS ratio, it’s likely low because the Yankees may want him to last as long as he can in the season while controlling his innings.

Humberto Sanchez: Has not pitched this year.

Dan McCutchen: Cutch has been a pleasant surprise this year. In 38.2IP (6GS), he has allowed 28H, 10 ER, only 8BB and has struck out 39, all to the tune of a 2.33 ERA. He would be a more intriguing prospect if he would be younger and in AAA, where he should be soon anyway. He’d be more ahead in his development if he didn’t get suspended for steroids.

Jesus Montero: No one beats Jesus. Period. The guy is raking, hitting .328/.346/.516 with 4HRs (twice last year’s total) and 24RBIs, not to mention a motherload of game-winning hits. He’s been hitting the ball everywhere and a long way. If he continues this through May, he should be in Tampa to give him and Austin Romine full time behind the plate. A few more walks would be nice to see.

J.B. Cox: Between Tampa and Trenton, Cox, returning from TJ surgery, owns a sparkling 1.80 ERA in 10IP, allowing 10H and 2BB while K’ing 6 and producing a 2.13 GO/AO ratio. The strikeouts will come and the hittability will decrease as he gets farther along in the process, from which he is recovering well.

Andrew Brackman: 60-day DL

Mark Melancon: Another TJ guy, this time in Tampa. After struggling initially, Melancon has lowered his ERA to 3.32 in 19IP in 10G for Tampa. He’s allowed 19H and 5BB while K’ing 13. The walks will go down and strikeouts way up (they’ve been doing so already) as he gets farther along. His .8GO/AO ratio is a cause for concern.

Juan Miranda: Miranda’s been a mixed bag at AAA this season, and has shown to be more the guy who had 4HRs in a 1/2 season at Trenton than the guy with 9HRs at Tampa. He’s hitting .267/.389/.367, with 2HRs and 13 RBIs. The AVG is just about what you’d expect, and the OBP is a bit of a surprise, but the SLG and HR’s are down, and that won’t change any time soon as he is on the 7-day DL with a shoulder injury. He did struggle early on, though, and was coming on until now. Impressive: 17:15 K:BB ratio.

Carmen Angelini:

Eric Duncan: If you want a surprise of the year so far, it’s Eric Duncan. He’s leaner, fitter, and even looks happier in his picture. Duncan is hitting .282/.388/.479, with 3HRs and 11RBI’s. He needs to get a few more doubles (only has 3) but has stolen 3 bases (gasp). Should he continue he’ll make his way up the general prospect maps to where he is here (at YLF), now.

Carmen Angelini: Angelini’s been another mixed bag. He’s hitting .242/.298/.294, but he’s been coming on of late. He’s played good defense but has only 4XBH, and has struck out 19 times. The early hype may have been too much, but he’s coming on more now. He’s the only respectable SS prospect we have, and with Jeter aging we need him to develop. I’m confident that, with his tools, he’ll come around.

Francisco Cervelli: 60-day DL. Thanks Elliot Johnson…

David Robertson: D-Rob has skyrocked his way though the system so far, and after a very impressive showing at AA, he’s now in Scranton. In 18.2IP (so far all at Trenton, having yet to appear in Scranton), he’s allowed only 8H and 6BB while K’ing 26. His season and career ERA is 0.96, just amazing. He’ll shoot his way up the prospect boards, and a September call-up isn’t out of the question now.

Bradley Suttle: Suttle’s been injury-prone this year, only appearing in 13G (50 AB’s). He’s been productive in those Ab’s, hitting .320/.382/.500, shaking off some of the doubts after his Hawaii performance. He already has 2 doubles and 2 triples to go along with 1 HR and 3RBI’s. He won’t be a fast-riser.

George Kontos: Kontos has been the Greek God of Giving Walks, allowing 15 in 30.2IP. He’s been extremely ordinary this year, allowing 28H, 15BB, and 5 HR’s. He’s posted a 1.12 GO/AO ratio. The breakout hasn’t come yet.

Jeff Marquez: Marquez has struggled at AAA this year. At least I get to look good with Marquez while I look bad (pleasantly) about Melky Cabrera. In 31.1IP (6GS), he’s allowed 38H, 10BB, and an International League-high 9HR’s, which is especially bad for a sinkerballer. He does have a 2 GO/AO ratio, and his K rate has risen a bit, K’ing 20 this year.

Zach McAllister: This guy has broken out with such a splash. He’s arguably the Yankees’s best pitching prospect, though I personally believe it’s Dellin Betances. In 39IP (6GS), he’s allowed 26H, 5BB, only 1HR, and a 0.92 ERA, the lowest in all of baseball. The best part? A sick 3.29 GO/AO ratio. Don’t believe me? It’s right here.

Kevin Whelan: 7-day DL with a shoulder injury

Christian Garcia: 7-day DL, recovering from TJ

Brett Gardner: Here’s another break-out guy. He’s hitting .314/.385/.480, continuing his hot hitting from spring training. He also has 2HR’s–matching last year’s total–and 14RBIs. He’s stolen 5 bases but has been caught 4 times, and also has a 21:13 K:BB ratio. However, he has 9XBH–3 doubles, 4 triples, and 2 homers–and has played a solid LF.

Marcos Vechionacci: Vech was playing well before getting injured. He’s hitting .302/.387/.396 in 53ABs (17G). He had 5 doubles, an impressive number, before getting injured, but had no HRs or triples.  He also posted an impressive 11:8 K:BB ratio.

Jairo Heredia: Heredia has been impressive again this year, posting a 3.48 ERA in 20.2IP, allowing 19H, 7BB, and 4HRs while K’ing 22. The WHIP is solid and the strikeouts are great, but you’d like to see the HRs go down. Keep in mind he’s only 18.

Justin Snyder: Snyder has continued his hot hitting from last year, hitting .313/.374/.461, driving the ball and showing good power (11 XBH, 2HRs). However, he’s made 10E playing up the middle (SS-2B-CF), which is a big problem. He needs to get his fielding adjusted, or he can’t possibly go up to Tampa and improve his hitting. I see him as a Wilson Betemit-type, in that he has solid gap power but doesn’t hit enough to justify his lack of a glove.

Mitch Hilligoss: Another baby of the hype, “Hit-Streak” has only hit .240/.252/.260, with a bevy of 0-fers in between. His fielding has been alright, but his contact ability is what’s going to keep him as a legit prospect. I don’t expect to see him on the Top 30 next year.

Angel Reyes: Boy did I miss on him. He was just busted for using stanozol, and is suspend 50 games. So now I don’t know much of his talent is juice or natural. He won’t be in the Top 30 next year at this point. Not that he doesn’t have a chance, being 20 and at Staten Island.

Now for some non-top prospects, but people who should be there or who are doing a nice job:

Mike Dunn: The 22-year-old is the only lefty worth mentioning who is being developed by the Yankees. As is normal for many former OFers, control is an issue, as he has walked 15 in 29.2IP at Tampa. Otherwise he has allowed 29H, 3HRs, and has struck out 26. The WHIP, coupled with the .84GO/AO ratio, make me wonder if his 2.92 ERA is somewhat smoke and mirrors.

Austin Romine: The 19-year-old 2007 2nd rounder has played a very solid C position while also hitting .351/.367/.439. A little more power would be appreciated, but he still has 5 doubles with no homers and 6 RBIs. He has stolen a base, though. As with fellow catching prospect Jesus Montero, a few more walks would be necessary.

Scott Patterson: Patterson, the 28-year-old former Indy Leaguer, has disappointed somewhat at AAA. He’s allowed 15H, 5BB, and 1HR in 13.1IP, making for a 4.05 ERA. While he’s struck out 14, he hasn’t quite found his groove. He doesn’t have much time, as there are younger arms with better stuff waiting to take his place, not to mention he was an Indy Leaguer.

Hope you enjoyed following on your top prospects. It’ll be interesting how this shapes up by mid-year, and then in the offseason.

Well, as I stated last night, I have unfortunately been unable to maintain constant posting. So instead of giving game recaps, I’ll provide my observations and analysis of the first two weeks of the MLB season.

• Hideki Matsui doesn’t look good in the field. His ranged has greatly diminished, and that balky knee should surely take away some athleticism in the outfield. Thankfully, his average arm and quick release haven’t suffered. He is best suited as the team’s DH, and he’s been swinging the ball really well.
• Johnny Damon is having a similar start to the season as he did last year, not driving the ball and taking a lot of weak hacks. The problem for the Yankees: this time he is not injured. That tells us the hot end to the season he had last year was a fluke, and he is undoubtedly in the decline. The Yankees often go as he goes, and he needs to get on base and steal bases.
• Bobby Abreu is hitting the ball well, and he looks in great shape, but his fear of walls is sickening, and he needs to steal some bases.
• A-Rod’s bat seems to have slowed down a bit from last year. PItches he caught up to last year are now fouled off or completely missed, as was seen in the second Red Sox game against Jon Papelbon in the eighth inning. He is still having a good season, but look for final numbers in the range of around his 2004 season.
• Derek Jeter  was really a butcher on the field before he got injured, and after he establishes himself back after the quad injury, talk of having to move to the outfield will resurface. His bat hasn’t been that impressive thus far, but he’ll come around…hopefully.
• Robinson Cano has been a real disappointment thus far. He is swinging at everything, and isn’t making solid contact–a lot of weak pop-ups and grounders. He is likely conscious about the expectation to increase his power output. Larry Bowa’s impact on his fielding has really been manifested since his departure.
• Jason Giambi’s batting average isn’t close to what he’d like, but he’s hit some solid liners right to people, and even hit two homers off Mike Timlin the Sox series. His defense has been average, largely due to his improved shape, which is a real upgrade compared to what it used to be.
• Earth to Jorge Posada. Yep, that career year isn’t happening again, but there’s not much to worry about particularly except for that balky shoulder. Well, one has to wonder if the shoulder is affecting his swing, which he denies, but he needs to produce for an otherwise lackluster Yankee offense.
• Jose Molina has continued his hot hitting from the last months of 2007. He’s hitting doubles in the gap, and doing really well and playing within himself. His defense really shone until yesterday, with an errant throw and a passed ball, and is now out with a mildly strained hamstring.
• Morgan Ensberg has looked good in limited at-bats, accepting a reduced role from his 2005 break-out season. The fact that Wilson Betemit hasn’t been starting at SS while Derek Jeter was out speaks volumes about his lack of range for the position, and his knack to strikeout isn’t helpful, either. Alberto Gonzalez has looked great in limited at-bats, showing a precocious patience at the plate as well as his typical, great glove. He, like Molina, has played well within himself. Not much should be expected from Chad Moeller.
• Chien-Ming Wang was been dominating. Period. His sinker has been really on and he seems to have recovered from the postseason meltdowns against Cleveland last year.
• Andy Pettitte has pitched effectively since his return from the DL stint. At some point the rotation must be shuffled for him to be the 2nd starter and Mike Mussina the 5th.
• Mike Mussina has pitched better than his overall numbers might indicate. He should not have pitched to Manny Ramirez on Saturday, but other than that (which damaged his numbers), he has had nice command with his reduced velocity (82-86MPH fastball) and a solid knucklecurve.
• Phil Hughes has been an enigma. His first start was a gem, but since then, he seems to have lost his sense of command and control. His fastball is what it was before the injury (91-93; I don’t buy the 96-97MPH hype anymore), but it’s everywhere within and out of the zone. He throws it too much, and should throw more curveballs than he already does. His slider, rated as a major-league pitch when drafted out of high school, hasn’t been seen much and it should be used more, at least as a show-me pitch. His changeup his a work of progress, but it wouldn’t hurt to use it as a show-me pitch as well, but nothing more.
• Ian Kennedy has had a mixed season. After completely blowing his first start, he pitched decently well after an awkward, rain-delayed game, but pitched better than the numbers indicated.
• In the bullpen, Brian Bruney has been a revelation with the strikeouts and control. Jon Albaladejo did a nice job before his demotion. After a rough first week, LaTroy Hawkins has had a nice, scoreless second week. Kyle Farnsworth reverted to form after a promising opening week. Ross Ohlendorf has lived up to the sleeper hype, being able to eat innings, throw hard, and throw strikes at will. And, well, Joba’s been Joba, but command has slipped a bit; he’ll come around though.

So there are your observations on the whole team in the first week of the season. The minors observations should be coming tomorrow, and if not then, Friday or Saturday.

I apologize for the severe lack of updating since the beginning of the season. I have been extremely busy, and from Wednesday through Friday morning I’ll be away in Washington, D.C.  During packing tomorrow I’ll do the best I can to recap what’s happened so far, with observations on the major and minor league teams. Hopefully I’ll get to it by tomorrow.

• We beat the Red Sox in every way, even with wine.
• The Warrior’s number is being used…treason!
• Chad Jennings has minor league assignments, the Scranton W/B roster and rotation
• Yep, we’re an expensive team. Yet we still won’t get to the playoffs.

That’s it for today, folks. Now go watch Opening Night!

In a shocking move today, Humberto Sanchez was traded to the LA Dodgers for RHP Scott Proctor. Proctor, 30, was previously traded to LAD for INF Wilson Betemit, and pitched well. He was a workhorse and fan favorite before that, as Andrew can attest to. But thankfully he’s back, mainly to effectively eat bullpen innings and shore up the Yankee bullpen if Kyle Farnsworth and LaTroy Hawkins falter. “We felt we had to do this deal for the best interest of our team, and it will really help our ‘pen. Hopefully Scott will give us the same effectiveness he had before we traded him,” said Yankees GM Brian Cashman (source).

Sanchez, a 25-year-old received in the Gary Sheffield trade, had yet to pitch an inning for the Yankees’ system due to Tommy John surgery. He has top-of-the line stuff, but it remains to be seen in what capacity he will (ab)used by Joe Torre and the Dodgers.

The deal was approved by Commissioner Bud Selig despite the fact that Sanchez is on the 60-day DL.

If you couldn’t tell yet, April Fools!

Yesterday’s Opening Day was postponed until today, 7:05 PM ET.

Presenting my season predictions for the 2008 season:

AL East
Red Sox, 97-65
Yankees, 92-70
Rays, 81-81
Jays, 80-82
Orioles, 63-99

AL Central
Tigers, 94-68
Indians, 93-69*
Twins, 79-83
White Sox, 75-87
Royals, 73-89

AL West
Mariners, 88-74
Angels, 86-76
A’s, 75-87
Rangers, 72-90

NL East
Mets, 90-72
Braves, 86-76
Phillies, 83-79
Nationals, 77-85
Marlins, 73-89

NL Central
Cubs, 89-73
Brewers, 84-78
Reds, 78-84
Cardinals, 75-87
Astros, 72-90
Pirates, 68-94

NL West
Diamondbacks, 90-72
Dodgers, 88-74*
Rockies, 86-76
Padres, 86-76
Giants, 58-104

*Wildcard
ALDS: Red Sox over Indians, 3-2; Tigers over M’s, 3-1
NLDS: Mets over Dodgers, 3-2; D-backs over Cubs, 3-2
ALCS: Red Sox over Tigers, 4-3
NLCS: D-backs over Mets, 4-3
WS: D-backs over Red Sox, 4-3

AL MVP: DET 3B Miguel Cabrera; runner-up: NYY 3B Alex Rodriguez
NL MVP: CHC OF Alfonso Soriano; runner-up: ARI OF Chris Young
AL ROY: NYY RHP Joba Chamberlain; runner-up: TB 3B Evan Longoria
NL ROY: CHC OF Kosuke Fukudome; runner-up: CIN OF Jay Bruce
AL CY: DET RHP Justin Verlander; runner-up: NYY RHP Chien-Ming Wang
NL CY: SD RHP Jake Peavy; runner-up: NYM LHP Johan Santana

So there they are. Some out out-of-the ordinary predictions, but we’ll see how it plays out.