Baseball America Yankees Top 30 Prospects January 30, 2008Posted by Pablo Zevallos in Baseball America Top 30 Prospects.
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This from Peter Abraham–Baseball America prospect books have hit the shelves (or, the mailboxes), and Peter Abraham got his. He has revealed who the Yankees Top 30 Prospects, per BA, are:
1. Joba Chamberlain, RHP
2. Austin Jackson, OF
3. Jose Tabata, OF
4. Ian Kennedy, RHP
5. Alan Horne, RHP
6. Jesus Montero, C
7. Jeff Marquez, RHP
8. Brett Gardner, OF
9. Ross Ohlendorf, RHP
10. Andrew Brackman, RHP
11. Mark Melancon, RHP
12. Humberto Sanchez, RHP
13. Dellin Betances, RHP
14. Dan McCutchen, RHP
15. Kevin Whelan, RHP
16. Carmen Angelini, SS
17. George Kontos, RHP
18. Ivan Nova, RHP
19. Collin Curtis, OF
20. Jairo Heredia, RHP
21. Juan Miranda, 1B
22. Austin Romine, C
23. Francisco Cervelli, C
24. Dave Robertson, RHP
25. Mike Dunn, LHP
26. J.B. Cox, RHP
27. Mitch Hilligoss, INF
28. Scott Patterson, RHP
29. Edwar Ramirez, RHP
30. Zach McAllister, RHP
BA and I agree on #’s 1-5. I have previously stated my opinions on #’s 7-9. If you’re too lazy to check the link, in short, I think they underrate Dellin Betances, Dan McCutchen, and (as we now see), J.B. Cox, and way overrate Jeff Marquez, Brett Gardner, and Ross Ohlendorf. We also agree on #11. However, I think Whelan is overrated for a guy who walked 7 (7!!) per 9 in Trenton. We essentially agree on Angelini and Kontos, though #18 Nova and #19 Curtis don’t appear in my ranking–this, of course, is because I think there are better prospects out there. Heredia at 20 is probably right, because I get the feeling that I underrated him in my ranking. Miranda at #21 doesn’t match how they raved about him during the AFL season, and, to me, he’s another underrated prospect by BA. Austin Romine doesn’t appear on my rankings, though, by 2008, I’m sure he’ll be there (if all goes right for him). However, I think Francisco Cervelli is way underrated at #23–I think his bat will be good (enough, at least) to force playing time with his outstanding defense. At #24, Robertson is slightly underrated (17 on my ranking), because with his improved and improving control, and solid stuff, he will be a solid major league set-up man. While I understand the ranking because nothing about him is outstanding, and there are other relievers (or potential relievers) who will get more looks and longer looks for the pen, I still think he’s slightly underrated. Mike Dunn at #25 doesn’t appear on my ranking, but he’s a find, up-and-coming lefty in the system. At #26, J.B. Cox is way low, but this is probably because of his recovering from elbow surgery, while still not having the best stuff ever to start with. Edwar Ramirez and Scott Patterson, due to their long track records and ages, aren’t prospects to me–they shouldn’t be considered for a spot like this–and Zach McAllister at #30 is simply a poor job by the scouting team.
Overall, I think this is a below-average job by the BA team. They underrated some key prospects, and way overrated some others. Eric Duncan, who many forget is only 22 (going on 23) at AAA and still has a shot, is not even in the book, and neither is Chris Garcia (who has as good stuff as Phil Hughes when healthy) or Brad Suttle (though I smell bust on this one). However, younger prospects (Nova) are included, as are questionable prospects (Curtis, Ramirez, Patterson). This is the marquee name in prospecting, but, gee, I don’t know about this one.
Santana dealt to Mets/Introduction of a new writer January 30, 2008Posted by spence47 in Boston Red Sox, Johan Santana, Mets, Minnesota Twins, New York Mets.
I will first take this time to introduce myself: I am Shane Spencer (alias). As said I am both a fan of the Yankees and the Twins (if thats possible). I look forward to writing with Pablo, whom I have known for about a year and a half now. To Baseball…
In the next 48 to 72 hours Johan Santana will be wearing a Mets uniform. The Mets traded 4 prospects to the Twins for the elite starter. But what does this mean to Yankees fans? The two obvious outcomes is that Santana will not pitch for the Yanks in the 2008 campaign. The other is that the Yankees will not lose the talents of Phil Hughes or “Melk Man” Cabrera or any top prospects. As well as avoiding the loss of Young talent, Santana will not go the the hated Sox, who already have a formidable rotation. Going back to the prospects acquired, as a fan of the Twins I must say I am disappointed with the talent acquired, as I belive what the Yankees offered was superior. A quick comparison:
Carlos Gomez = Jose Tabata lite
Kevin Mulvey = Alan Horne
Deolis Guerra = Dellin Betances
Philip Humber = Humberto Sanchez lite
Not so impressive. But again, what does this mean to a Yankees fan? It mostly means that in a few years when the twins have developed, (they do look good in a few years with names like Mauer, Morneau, Cuddyer, Liriano, Young, as well as a host of other young players) they may not be good enough to stay even with the Yankees, who they will play in the regular and (hopefully) the post season.
–Shane Spencer (alias)
Cashman Criticizes Bernie January 28, 2008Posted by Pablo Zevallos in Bernie Williams, Brian Cashman.
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This per Peter Abraham and other sources:
Speaking at William Paterson University in New Jersey at an event with Theo Epstein, Cashman said Williams spent too much time with his music career “and that took away from his play” on the field.
Cashman said Williams had a “terrible season” in 2005 and that former manager Joe Torre was wrong to play Williams as often as he did in 2006 because better players were available.
This seems reasonable to me–let’s face it, 2005-2006, Bernie Williams didn’t have the best season. 2006 was definitely better than 2005, but his decline was evident and, to a nostalgic (Joe Torre among them), tragic. Torre may have hindered Melky Cabrera’s development by playing an aging and unreliable Bernie later in the last two years of his career, but this may be only because Cashman may have wanted to have Melky as a good-value trade trade chip.
However, Cashman has no business criticizing Bernie’s private life. Bernie doesn’t have to be a baseball player–no one does it forever, and it’s a choice among hundreds of other vocations. While Bernie owes a responsibility to the team, since he was under contract, but he could retire if he so chooses. That raises the point–why hasn’t he?–but still, they are all choices.
Mailbag #2 January 27, 2008Posted by Pablo Zevallos in 30-rule for Pitchers, Alan Horne, Andy Pettitte, Chien-Ming Wang, Ian Kennedy, Jeff Marquez, Joba Chamberlain, Mike Mussina, Phil Hughes, Robinson Cano.
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Presenting…our second mailbag.
What will the Yankees do with the six major league starters they have on the roster? Does Kennedy get demoted? Or do they skip starts with Chamberlain and Hughes using Kennedy to fill in?–Eric
No one has a definitive answer on that one yet. I think they could extend Hughes to about 160 innings, considering he threw ~146 in 2006 and ~110 this year. Ian Kennedy will be able to throw ~195 innings after throwing ~165 this year. Joba Chamberlain, who threw 112 innings this year, won’t go more than about 140 innings this year. Assuming a healthy starter throws 200 innings a year, and Andy Pettitte and Chien Ming-Wang match their innings total from last year, that leaves 147 innings to be accounted for. This number increases if you account for Joba Chamberlain either starting or finishing the year in the bullpen–let’s say he pitches 100 in the rotation and 40 in the bullpen. That now leaves us with 187 innings to fill. Mike Mussina doesn’t have the stuff, endurance, or adaptability to pitch that much, so let’s say he pitches 140 innings. That now leaves us with 47 innings. Jeff Marquez and Alan Horne will probably be major-league ready by October, and either could pitch in the bullpen in 2008 to start or end the year, and their innings cap will be around 180-185, so either one could step in. So, if you really think about it, you would need seven pitchers to get through the year–meaning Mike Mussina needs to come through.
Maybe you could show some of the commenter’s why the 30 rule is new wave. Look up just a few of them;
W. Ford 112 r, 207, 210, 230 ave.
B. Turley 7.3r, 60.3, 247.3, 212 ave.
M. Stottlemyer, 96.0r, 291.0, 252.7 ave.
F. Peterson, 215.0r, 181.3, 220 ave.
Pettitte, 175.0r, 221.0, 215.7 ave.
Moose, 87.7r, 241.0, 227 ave.
Now, I understand there is much more money involved with pitchers. If the other guys could do it, why can’t the big 3? I realize that one would have to evaluate each pitcher on the merits of pushing them (just a little bit) longer.–Old Ranger
The 30-rule is in place because studies on pitchers have proven that increasing a pitcher’s woarkload by my more than 30 innings a year gives him a significantly higher injury risk for the following season. Throwing a baseball isn’t a natural motion–throwing underhand is. Since most pitchers pitch over-the-top, there is increased stress on the shoulder and elbows when pitching, so it must be controlled. Otherwise, again, there will be injury.
Will Cano be keeping his number, 24? or switching back to 22?–Aubrey
Probably 24–I see no reason to change numbers.
What Do You Want to See? January 25, 2008Posted by Pablo Zevallos in Yankees: Looking to the Future.
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There hasn’t been much going on lately–that is, of course, until pitchers and catchers report–so I’d like to know what you, the readers, want to see here. I decided that the Scout segment would take up a lot of time I don’t have, so do you have any other ideas and suggestions. All are appreciated and will be taken under consideration. Thanks!
Some Questions I Answered January 25, 2008Posted by Pablo Zevallos in Abraham Almonte, Andrew Brackman, Austin Jackson, Edwar Ramirez, Frankie Cervelli, Jairo Heredia, Jeff Marquez, Joba Chamberlain, Jose Tabata, Kevin Whelan, Phil Hughes, Prylis Cuello, Scott Patterson.
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A fellow blogger asked me several questions regarding the Yankees and the system. These are interesting questions, and either point can be argued. Here are the questions and answers.
Who is your breakout candidate of the year for the Yankee farm system?
Kevin Whelan–I think he’ll get his control together.
If one player is going to disappoint this year in the Yankee farm system, who would you pick?
Jeff Marquez. I don’t think he’s that good, and AAA hitters may finally catch up to him.
Who is your sleeper?
Jairo Heredia–I think his stuff translates into serious results at a young age.
Which Milb-affiliate will be most interesting this year?
AAA Tacoma (Rays)–at various points throughout the season, most (or all) of Evan Longoria, Wade Davis, Jacob McGee, Reid Brignac, David Price, and Desmond Jennings will pass through there.
You’re Brian Cashman in the 2007 draft. Do you select Andrew Brackman? If not, who do you select and why?
I would select Brackman. Pitching depth in the system is incredibly deep, as by the time all of the veteran’s contracts expire, there will be enough spaces for the younger players/prospects, many of whom are turning out nicely. The way things are turning out, there are more prospects than spots, so there is no need for a player who will develop quickly, someone Brackman is not.
Prylis Cuello or Abraham Almonte?
Both are extremely raw and projectable, but I’ll lean towards Almonte, since their isn’t much OF depth in the system.
Joba Chamberlain or Phil Hughes?
Joba–I may be one of the few who think that injury concerns aren’t a particular problem with Joba–he’s dropped
significant amounts of weight, and he has very good mechanics (for what I hear). Joba’s two (going on three?) plus pitches are better than Hughes’s two. Joba is superior in stuff, strikeouts, and hittability, and, from what we saw last year in the majors, the control is a crapshoot between the two. That said, both will be very good/excellent pitchers for a long time.
Austin Jackson or Jose Tabata?
AJax–he’s a surer bet once his tools translated into success last year. If Tabata develops good power this year, though, I might lean towards Tabata.
Scott Patterson or Edwar Ramirez?
Edwar–he’s the younger of the two Indy leaguers, and his changeup is a plus plus pitch. He can add a little frame to get some juice on his FB, and I think he can add another pitch (curve?). Patterson is in his prime as we speak, and won’t be around for long.
Francisco Cervelli, great catcher or greatest catcher ever?
“Merely” great. I think Cervelli has plus defense, and although he hasn’t shown much power, he has improving contact skills and solid on-base skills. If he adds some power (12-15 HR power)–well, you never know.
On a different note, the mailbag will be up by Sunday–thanks for the responses so far, and keep them coming! Everyone’s questions will be answered.
Cano, Yankees Agree to 4yr/$28M deal January 25, 2008Posted by Pablo Zevallos in 2008 Arbitration Hearings, Chien-Ming Wang, Robinson Cano.
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Per multiple sources, the Yankees have agreed to a 4yr/$28M deal with 2B Robinson Cano. There are club options in 2012 for $13M and 2013 for $15M. This also buys 4 years of arbitration and, potentially, two years of free agency.
This is a great deal for the Yankees. They sign one of the centerpieces of the Yankee lineup for a long time, and at a slightly below-market deal at that. I don’t think the Yankees should go long-term with Chien-Ming Wang, though, which they probably won’t anyway. Wang is a pitcher who has experienced various injuries over the last couple of years, and won’t be in his prime through the end of his deal. If indeed he is doing his groundball act with smoke and mirrors, it would surely be exposed by then. The Yankees also have top prospects with higher upside (Dellin Betances, maybe Jairo Heredia?) who will be ready to take over his spot in the rotation.
This Week’s Mailbag January 19, 2008Posted by Pablo Zevallos in Mailbag.
I would like to do a new mailbag for this week, so I appreciate any questions you send over. Please send the emails to firstname.lastname@example.org. Thanks!
Betemit Signs; Cano, Wang Exchange Figures With Yanks January 19, 2008Posted by Pablo Zevallos in 2008 Arbitration Hearings, Brian Bruney, Chien-Ming Wang, Robinson Cano, Wilson Betemit.
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Wilson Betemit signed a 1-yr, $1.165M deal to be part of the first base platoon. No surprise here.
On the other hand, the Yankees didn’t sign Chien-Ming Wang or Robinson Cano to contracts. By the deadline to submit arbitration figures, Wang asked for $4.6M, while the team offered $4M. There should be a contract settled by the February arbitration hearings. Conversely, Cano asked for $4.55M, with the team offering #3.2. Cano was obviously lowballed, and maybe the Yankees were taking this whole “young, cheap core” thing too seriously. Cano hit .306 and set career-highs with 19 HRs and 97 RBIs. He will be one of the centerpieces of the Yankee offenses of the future. You can make the argument that he lowballed himself, except that Miguel Cabrera only made $11.3M this offseason.
In new no one cares about, Brian Bruney asked for $845,000, while the Yankees offered $640,000. Hmm, I wonder who will win this case…oh yeah, the team.
Sardhina heads to Seattle January 17, 2008Posted by Pablo Zevallos in Bronson Sardhina.
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As the title says, Bronson Sardhina is headed to Seattle. No loss here–while he may have served as good OF depth for AAA, there was no need for him as a prospect once we have Austin Jackson, Jose Tabata, and Brett Gardner within a year or two of being major-league ready. He was a disappointment for being the 24th overall pick back in 2001 (I think).