Yankees: Looking for the Future

Some things on spring training:

• Brian Bruney has trimmed down a lot, and has a new attitude
• Joe Girardi is praising Sean Henn…like Torre did for the past three years
• Phil Hughes has confidence in his fastball, and his velocity is back
• Tony Pena can get crazy with his catchers’ drills
• The questions about Derek Jeter’s ability to stay at shortstop are growing
• More on the same vein…are Yankee fans finally able to criticize Jeter?

NOTE: (INV) marks players invited to Spring Training; (+) marks injured players on the 40-man roster

Starters: Chien-Ming Wang, Phil Hughes, Andy Pettitte, Ian Kennedy, Jeff Karstens, Kei Igawa, Jeff Marquez, Mike Mussina, Carl Pavano (+), Andrew Brackman (+), Dan Giese (INV), Dan McCutchen (INV)

‘Tweeners: Joba Chamberlain, Chase Wright, Sean Henn, Steven White, Heath Phillips (INV), Darrell Rasner (INV)

Relievers: Mariano Rivera, Jonathan Alabadejo, Chris Britton, Brian Bruney, LaTroy Hawkins, Kyle Farnsworth, Ross Ohlendorf, Scott Patterson, Edwar Ramirez, Jose Veras, Humberto Sanchez (+), Scott Strickland (INV), Billy Traber (INV), Mark Melancon (INV), Steven Jackson (INV)

This is a long one. The competitions are: four bullpen spots, two rotation spots, five AAA rotation spots, four AAA bullpen spots. We’ll do each competition separately. Notice that the losers from one contest move on to others. NOTE: We’ll assume Joba Chamberlain starts out as a starter.

Bullpen, 4
The only guaranteed bullpen spots are Rivera, Farnsworth(less), and Hawkins, the last two because of their contracts. There might not be a lefty in the ‘pen, but we’ll assume there is. The contestants are Henn, Wright, Igawa (also a player for the #5 rotation spot), Traber, and Phillips. Henn throws too many pitches and walks too many people. His fastball velocity is also down. Igawa is the money man, and his routine has been altered, hopefully coming with results. Wright debuted last year with mixed results, and Phillips is a somewhat promising minor league free agent (from CWS). Igawa would have the best shot because he has the better stuff (and has a big contract), but he isn’t neccessarily the best pitcher. His fastball could get a boost from the ‘pen, and he can go all-out, eliminating stamina concerns, and can focus on racking up the K’s. The problem: we can have ourselves a lefty Kyle Farnsworth lite, giving up homers and walking everyone. Wright is on Igawa’s boat. Traber has been a first-round disappointment from 2000. Phillips, on the other hand, while lacking in a fastball (86-90, depending on who you believe), has a nice “rainbow curve” that could really freeze a hitter. My pick for the lefty job: Phillips.

We then have three other jobs, with Ramirez, Patterson, Ohlendorf, Alabadejo, Ramirez, Britton, Bruney, and Veras as the contestants. Ohlendorf probably gets a nod with his electric stuff and youth. Alabadejo gets another nod for actually having pretty good control (gasp!) and getting solid K’s numbers. Ramirez gives the bullpen a different look, and snags the last job. Overall, with the bullpen settled, this bullpen is a young bullpen, and we don’t know what to expect with the youngsters and how they’ll handle things. Another thing of note–since I predict Hawkins will be out by mid-season, the spot will eventually fall into the lap of Mark Melancon by the end of the year.

Starters, 2
This isn’t really a competition. Chamberlain, Kennedy, Mussina, and Igawa are the players here. Most likely the first two will get the #4 and #5 jobs respectively, with Mussina as the swingman filling the innings caps. Moving on.

AAA Starters, 5
This is a real horse race. Igawa, Horne, McCutchen, Marquez, Karstens, Rasner, Giese, White, Henn, and Wright are the contestants. Now that the prospects are finally major players, Horne and Marquez get their AAA starting spots (#’s 1 and 2, respectively). McCutchen likely goes to AA no matter what. Igawa finally gets his spot here as the #3. White comes back, despite having nothing to prove, for the #4 spot. The fifth spot is a toss-up. I would have McCutchen here, except that he likely goes to AA. Rasner has the best track record of the remaining, but Giese isn’t much different (in style/stuff), and White and Henn are lefties (not that that’s neccesary at this point) with decent stuff and solid minor league track records. My gut tells me Rasner takes the #5 spot anyway.

AAA Bullpen, 4
So many good players, so few spots…Our contestants on this last-gasp attempt are Patterson, Britton, Bruney, Veras, Strickland, Jackson, Giese, Henn, and Wright. Patterson gets a nod, continuing the Cinderella story, and replaces an injured/ineffective major-league reliever at some point. Britton, while not necessarily getting the same blogger clamoring from last year, gets another nod for his major league viability, good stuff, and solid K numbers. He also gets a spot in the majors, but, unlike Patterson, his will likely be permanent (don’t forget, trades DO happen). Jackson, showing improvement in the bullpen from last year, gets the third spot. Henn gets the lefty role, and the fourth spot. Wright goes to AA.

This now leaves Veras, Bruney, Strickland, and Giese without jobs. Veras is 29, so he’ll catch on with a team. Bruney has a shot to make the MLB or AAA roster, and his slimmed-down shape gives him improved chances, if only he can add another pitch and control that wildness (a lot to ask). He’s 25, so he’ll also catch on somewhere. Strickland and Giese are AAAA players. They may or may not get another job until they have to fill a spot mid-year.

NOTE: (INV) marks a player invited to Spring Training The list: Bobby Abreu, Hideki Matsui, Johnny Damon, Melky Cabrera, Shelley Duncan, Colin Curtis (INV), Justin Christian (INV), Brett Gardner (INV), Austin Jackson (INV), Jason Lane (INV), Greg Porter (INV), Jose Tabata (INV)

The big-league spots are set, with the first five names (Duncan appears because of his RF abilility) having major league jobs. Curtis is a future 4th OF option who will likely go to Tampa or Trenton. Christian and Gardner will be in the starting OF at Scranton. Jackson and Tabata are ticketed for Trenton after having great seasons at A ball.

There is only a competition for the 3rd OF spot at AAA. Jamal Strong is there, but he is likely the 4th OF. Lane, 31, has big-league experience, but has really slumped the last two years in the Majors after hitting 26 HRs for the Astros in 2005. Porter flashes some pop, but isnt much different from Strong. My bet is Lane will continue his struggles and get released, while Porter snags the 3rd OF spot at AAA, joining Christian, Gardner, and Strong.

NOTE: (INV) notes a player invited to spring training

The list: Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter, Robinson Cano, Wilson Betemit, Alberto Gonzalez, Morgan Ensberg (INV), Bernie Castro (INV), Cody Ransom (INV), Nick Green (INV), Marcos Vechionacci (INV), Chris Woodward (INV)

The starters at 2B, SS, and 3B are, of course, set. Notice Betemit appears here again–he may be the utility infielder if he doesn’t get the 1B platoon share, and he can still play all four infield positions. For now, let’s assume he’s a platoon player. There are six spots at AAA Scranton/W-B ready (2B, SS, UTIL), and there are six players for that–so two players don’t have jobs. Ensberg likely has a major league job as back-up 3B/1B (the plans are he’ll learn it), or part of that 1B platoon. He especially has a job if he’s back to 2005 form. The competition in the majors is for the utility infielder role. The main players for that are Alberto Gonzales and Nick Green. Both have undistinguished bats, but Gonzalez has the superior glove. On the other hand, Green would be a veteran clubhouse leader with a slightly superior bat, at this point, but less upside and the AAAA moniker. My vote would for Green, however, simply because warming the major league bench would hinder Gonzalez’s bat development. However, with Betemit experienced at 2B/SS/3B and Ensberg at 3B and a little OF, and both will learn 1B, there is no need for a true utility infielder. Castro is speedy, so he could get a job as AAA 2nd baseman/MLB pinch runner in-waiting. Woodward is versatile and an MLB vet, so he could take the AAA UTIL job. That leaves Ransom and potentially Green without jobs.

NEXT UP: Outfielders

NOTE: (INV) marks a player invited to spring training.

Catchers:Jorge Posada, Jose Molina, Francisco Cervelli, Kyle Anson (INV), Jason Brown (INV) , Jesus Montero (INV), PJ Piliterre (INV), Austin Romine (INV)

There is no competition among the catchers; Posada is the starter, Molina is the backup, and Cervelli is the 3rd catcher on the 40-man, and the catcher of the future. Anson, Brown, and Piliterre are competing for the AAA Scranton/W-B starting and backup roles, so only two of these guys will make it. My gut tells me Piliterre will start and Brown will back up. Montero earned the invite based on being the future Yankee slugger (at 1B or C, remains to be seen), and Romine, a 2nd rounder from 2007, is a player whose defense and potential the Yankees just love.

FIRST BASEMEN: Jason Giambi, Wilson Betemit, Shelley Duncan, Juan Miranda, Eric Duncan (INV)

It remains to be seen who will start at 1B for the Yankees. Giambi has an incentive to be in great shape and do well–he is on a walk year, and he likely won’t be back. Whatever the case, he will get his at-bats while not necessarily being the starter. Betemit and Duncan will likely platoon to be the starters, and though neither have above-average defense at 1B, their glovework is still easily better than that of Giambi. Miranda probably won’t make the team out of Spring Training, and that’s alright, because no one expects him to. But if he mashes during the Grapefruit League season, and one or two of the previous three struggle–well, then, you never know. Duncan, the 2003 first round disappointment, is on his 9th life here, and this year is make-or-break, considering he will be exposed to the Rule 5 again if he doesn’t do well. Miranda will likely be in the majors by June, and Duncan, if he does very well, could eke out a September call-up.

NEXT UP: Infielders