Yankees: Looking for the Future

Here’s my first crack at projecting the Opening Day roster. Note that there will be a long reliever and likely a lefty in the bullpen.

Lineup
LF Johnny Damon
SS Derek Jeter
RF Bobby Abreu
3B Alex Rodriguez
1B Jason Giambi
DH Hideki Matsui
C Jorge Posada
2B Robinson Cano
CF Melky Cabrera

I think the lineup should have Cano batting 5th and Matsui 8th, but I just don’t see Girardi doing that.

Bench
INF Wilson Betemit
3B/1B Morgan Ensberg
1B/OF Shelley Duncan
C Jose Molina

While the Yankees would love a speedy pinch runner and/or a true utility infielder, Betemit and Ensberg are versatile enough and hit too well for them to carry Bernie Castro or Nick Green.

Rotation
SP1 Chien-Ming Wang
SP2 Andy Pettitte
SP3 Mike Mussina
SP4 Ian Kennedy
SP5 Phil Hughes

Note that I am determining this based on innings, as the first two pitchers will pitch over 200 innings, with the last three slots pieced together based on innings caps and an aging veteran.

Bullpen
LR Darrell Rasner
MR LaTroy Hawkins
MR Kyle Farnsworth
MR Billy Traber
MR Scott Patterson
SU Joba Chamberlain
CL Mariano Rivera

Girardi will likely take a lefty, as it is his preference and Traber has done a solid job. Patterson’s spring performance will win him the last bullpen spot, and Ross Ohlendorf will continue his bullpen seasoning in AAA S/W-B. I’ve been predicting that LaTroy Hawkins’s 63% groundball rate won’t hold up and he’ll be out by mid-summer, and I’m maintaining that.

This is a solid roster. Some things will no doubt have changed by the end of the year (Hawkins, Farnsworth, Damon traded? Joba to rotation?). Prospects will be called up, disappointments will be DFA’d. This team has its share of broken-down, aging veterans (Damon, Matsui, Giambi, with Abreu, Posada, and Jeter soon to follow) who may not last the full season. There will be growing pains with the Big 3. The bullpen is full of question marks who can well be busts.

This is not to say there aren’t players on the rise. Robinson Cano is a rising star and the second-best 2B in the league. While comparisons to Carlos Beltran and Bernie Williams are silly at this point, Melky Cabrera will be (at least) a league-average CF. The Big 3 will have its moments to shine, and Wang, only 27, will get it done with his hard sinker.

The offense is no longer a 1,000 run offense. The pitching is somewhat suspect, and there are a fair amount of questions on this team. Regardless, I see that the Yankees still have enough to scrape a 92-70 record because there still is talent. However, they will barely miss the playoffs.