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Observations on the First Two Weeks of the Season, MLB April 14, 2008

Posted by Pablo Zevallos in Observations, Yankees.
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Well, as I stated last night, I have unfortunately been unable to maintain constant posting. So instead of giving game recaps, I’ll provide my observations and analysis of the first two weeks of the MLB season.

  • Hideki Matsui doesn’t look good in the field. His ranged has greatly diminished, and that balky knee should surely take away some athleticism in the outfield. Thankfully, his average arm and quick release haven’t suffered. He is best suited as the team’s DH, and he’s been swinging the ball really well.
  • Johnny Damon is having a similar start to the season as he did last year, not driving the ball and taking a lot of weak hacks. The problem for the Yankees: this time he is not injured. That tells us the hot end to the season he had last year was a fluke, and he is undoubtedly in the decline. The Yankees often go as he goes, and he needs to get on base and steal bases.
  • Bobby Abreu is hitting the ball well, and he looks in great shape, but his fear of walls is sickening, and he needs to steal some bases.
  • A-Rod’s bat seems to have slowed down a bit from last year. PItches he caught up to last year are now fouled off or completely missed, as was seen in the second Red Sox game against Jon Papelbon in the eighth inning. He is still having a good season, but look for final numbers in the range of around his 2004 season.
  • Derek JeterĀ  was really a butcher on the field before he got injured, and after he establishes himself back after the quad injury, talk of having to move to the outfield will resurface. His bat hasn’t been that impressive thus far, but he’ll come around…hopefully.
  • Robinson Cano has been a real disappointment thus far. He is swinging at everything, and isn’t making solid contact–a lot of weak pop-ups and grounders. He is likely conscious about the expectation to increase his power output. Larry Bowa’s impact on his fielding has really been manifested since his departure.
  • Jason Giambi’s batting average isn’t close to what he’d like, but he’s hit some solid liners right to people, and even hit two homers off Mike Timlin the Sox series. His defense has been average, largely due to his improved shape, which is a real upgrade compared to what it used to be.
  • Earth to Jorge Posada. Yep, that career year isn’t happening again, but there’s not much to worry about particularly except for that balky shoulder. Well, one has to wonder if the shoulder is affecting his swing, which he denies, but he needs to produce for an otherwise lackluster Yankee offense.
  • Jose Molina has continued his hot hitting from the last months of 2007. He’s hitting doubles in the gap, and doing really well and playing within himself. His defense really shone until yesterday, with an errant throw and a passed ball, and is now out with a mildly strained hamstring.
  • Morgan Ensberg has looked good in limited at-bats, accepting a reduced role from his 2005 break-out season. The fact that Wilson Betemit hasn’t been starting at SS while Derek Jeter was out speaks volumes about his lack of range for the position, and his knack to strikeout isn’t helpful, either. Alberto Gonzalez has looked great in limited at-bats, showing a precocious patience at the plate as well as his typical, great glove. He, like Molina, has played well within himself. Not much should be expected from Chad Moeller.
  • Chien-Ming Wang was been dominating. Period. His sinker has been really on and he seems to have recovered from the postseason meltdowns against Cleveland last year.
  • Andy Pettitte has pitched effectively since his return from the DL stint. At some point the rotation must be shuffled for him to be the 2nd starter and Mike Mussina the 5th.
  • Mike Mussina has pitched better than his overall numbers might indicate. He should not have pitched to Manny Ramirez on Saturday, but other than that (which damaged his numbers), he has had nice command with his reduced velocity (82-86MPH fastball) and a solid knucklecurve.
  • Phil Hughes has been an enigma. His first start was a gem, but since then, he seems to have lost his sense of command and control. His fastball is what it was before the injury (91-93; I don’t buy the 96-97MPH hype anymore), but it’s everywhere within and out of the zone. He throws it too much, and should throw more curveballs than he already does. His slider, rated as a major-league pitch when drafted out of high school, hasn’t been seen much and it should be used more, at least as a show-me pitch. His changeup his a work of progress, but it wouldn’t hurt to use it as a show-me pitch as well, but nothing more.
  • Ian Kennedy has had a mixed season. After completely blowing his first start, he pitched decently well after an awkward, rain-delayed game, but pitched better than the numbers indicated.
  • In the bullpen, Brian Bruney has been a revelation with the strikeouts and control. Jon Albaladejo did a nice job before his demotion. After a rough first week, LaTroy Hawkins has had a nice, scoreless second week. Kyle Farnsworth reverted to form after a promising opening week. Ross Ohlendorf has lived up to the sleeper hype, being able to eat innings, throw hard, and throw strikes at will. And, well, Joba’s been Joba, but command has slipped a bit; he’ll come around though.

So there are your observations on the whole team in the first week of the season. The minors observations should be coming tomorrow, and if not then, Friday or Saturday.

Comments»

1. M. Patel - April 20, 2008

Many of these problems are small issues and they probably won’t last for long. I am sure the offense will start picking it up again and Hughes already showed some improvement the other day. Nothing to worry about at this point,especially considering we have been injury plagued early on and those players will be returning shortly.

2. LL Coach - April 21, 2008

A few thoughts and quibbles:

+ Jeter: Next year at 1B. His range is problematic at SS, but would be outstanding at 1B. With his glove and infield arm, he could have the 1B gold glove for the next 10 years. Conventional wisdom is that a team (particularly a Yankee team) needs a power-hitting 1B to make the playoffs. But the Yankees have power at the other corner of the infield and Jeter’s hardly an offensive liability.

+ Posada: If Jeter moves to 1B, there’s no place to retire Posada. The logjam at DH clears somewhat at the end of the year and Molina can buffer a transition to a prospect.

+ Molina: What a great acquisition! Any connoisseur of catching has to be happy with a Molina on the roster.

+ Gonzalez: Next year’s starting SS. Defensively, he lives up to the hype, which I would not have thought possible. He could win the gold glove — at the marquee fielding position — in his rookie year.

Although he certainly has hit major league pitching on this cup of coffee (.333/.444/.467 — including 3/7 with two walks against the best the Red Sox had to offer), that’s a fluke (batting .150 in the minors this year). But even if he’s a .200 (or .150) hitter, the Yankees can afford to trade offense for defense (See Brosius, Scott), particularly defense at shortstop. The difference between .200 and .300 is two hits per week. How many hits would Gonzalez rob in a week?

They need to get him back to Scranton ASAP. He should be playing — and seeing pitches — every day.

+ Abreu: He says that it’s more important for him to be healthy than for him to slam into walls. He’s right.

+ Matsui: I love Matsui. I loved Bernie Williams, too. Call me unsentimental, but I’d love Matsui just as much in a Mariners or SF Giants uniform.

+ Damon: He’ll come around.

+ Agree on bullpen. I have hope for Farnsworth, though.

+ Kennedy is going to be fine. The media hysteria is silly. His control is at least as good as advertised, but the umpires aren’t giving him the benefit of the doubt. He needs to throw a half-inch closer to the plate early in the game, then expand the zone.

+ Hughes is going to be fine, too — IF he has the confidence to throw first-pitch strikes.

+ The important thing with Hughes and Kennedy is for Girardi to back them all the way. They need the confidence that they belong. The organization bet the farm on this strategy; it has to have the guts to stick to it.

3. M. Patel - April 21, 2008

@Mike Interesting thoughts, some seem a little too farfetched for me (i.e. Jeter at 1b and Gonzalez as S.S.), but I agree with others like the Kennedy/Hughes rebounds and Abreu not slamming into walls. I have hope for Farnsworth too, we are probably the only two Yankee fans who still do.

4. RollingWave - April 23, 2008

a few different take

a. I think it’s the reverse. looking at LD rates and OPS etc. Damon’s fine. (obviously helped by his latest outburst of course but his OPS was still consistently above Giambi )

b. same for Cano , who actually leads the team in LD rate. which most means he also leads the team in LD into outs rate by a mile.

c.Giambi’s actually more concerning. I don’t really give much of a damn on his fielding and he’s been accetpable at least. and he’s healthy enough to not be a complete joke on the bases helps. but his line drive rate simply isn’t there. even with today’s game he’s at 10%, which is only marginally better than his worse season in that department… (you guessed it) 2004. though he is showing some signs of life and given the upside we need to give him another month.

d. the bullpen continue to blow a ton of inherited runs. which is a very bad sign, just about the only RPs you could reliablly hope to get out of a jam is Joba and Mo. I don’t think the SPs been nearly as bad as it looked nor has teh RPs (non Mo/ Jobas) have been nearly as good.

e. I think we’ll most likely continue to get mixed bags from the kids and Moose. which should be ok if the offense start clicking I guess.

overall though, I think we’re in good shape , no one has suffered big injuries in itself should be a great sign.

5. RollingWave - April 23, 2008

also, I like how they’ve been giving long ABs. here’s a few interesting note

Melky : 4.0 P/PA (awsome, just what he needs to do)
Cano: 3.5 not nearly hacking as much as suspected. in last two season he’s been at 3.2 and 3.4

Jeter is worest at 3.3 … hmmmm