Joba Will Now Be a Starter May 21, 2008
Posted by Pablo Zevallos in Uncategorized.2 comments
According to what Joe Girardi said after tonight’s win, tonight’s 35-pitch, 2 inning outing for Joba Chamberlain has begun the process of him being a starter. YESS!!
Question is…who do they send down when he’s ready, assuming Ian Kennedy is ready and Darrell Rasner keeps being good? Thoughts?
Just an Idea… May 18, 2008
Posted by Pablo Zevallos in Uncategorized.4 comments
Note: This is just an idea, NOT an established rumor from anywhere.
The Brewers have bullpen needs, with free-agent acquisitions David Riske (4.71 ERA, 1.43 WHIP) and Eric Gagne (6.27 ERA, 1.87 WHIP) not pitching as expected. The bullpen owns a 4.39ERA, and the only dependable piece, Solomon Torres, is 36 and has pitched in almost half the team’s games. They also have top 1B/LF prospect Matt LaPorta, who is hitting .313/.428/.619 with 10HRs and 38RBI and 25BB:25K at AA and is, by all accounts, almost Major League-ready. The Brewers have star 1B Prince Fielder and also capable starters in CF–Mike Cameron for this year, Gabe Kapler, and top prospect Corey Gillespie hitting .273/.359/.531with 8HRs and 31RBI at AA as well.
The Yankees have two relief pitcher prospects rising through the system–Mark Melancon and J.B. Cox. Cox is already at AAA and Melancon is at AA. Both will be Major-League ready soon. Moreover, the Yankees have two relievers, RHP Kyle Farnsworth (4.05 ERA, and it was 2.84 before yesterday, with a 1.45 WHIP)and RHP LaTroy Hawkins(6.05 ERA, 1.35 WHIP), both whom are unreliable and one (Hawkins) who is old and on the decline. However, both have had recent success in the National League. In 2005, Farnsworth had a career half -year with the Braves (he was also excellent with the Tigers that year), pitching 27.1 innings and posting a 1.98 ERA, allowing 15H and 7BB while striking out 32. Hawkins pitched last year for the NL Champ Rockies, posting a 3.42 ERA in 55.1 innings, allowing 52H and 16BB while striking out 29, but also posting a 65% GB rate.
You might think, well, two spare part mid-30s relievers and a blocked top prospect might not match well together. Here’s where our new farm system comes in:
If the Brewers truly believe that Cameron, Kapler, and Gillespie aren’t enough to play CF for a contender, then they may ask for a CF in return. In that case Brett Gardner, who has found some power to go along with blazing speed and solid defense, may be offered.
Or the Brewers may find that they need more pitching prospects in the organization, as Carlos Villanueva, Manny Parra, and Dave Bush aren’t doing well, and top prospect Jeremy Jeffress is in his umpteenth drug supsension. Then we may offer Jeff Marquez, whose value is better than it really should be. He is having a career worst 5.60 FIP, 41% GB rate (bad for a sinkerballer), and only 4.9 K/9. While I think this is his true self, maybe the Brewers think they can fix him up and make him something useful–a back-end starter or perhaps relief help.
At this point we have Farnsworth, Hawkins, and Marquez/Gardner for LaPorta. That may not seem like a lot, but if Farnsworth pitches well he could snag Type B FA status and a supplemental 1st round draft pick.The match-ups present financial problems, as the Brewers are a small market payroll team coming in at $80.9M, and Farnsworth and Hawkins make $8.75M, nearly 10% of their current payroll. We can assume that the Yankees can eat $4-$5M dollars, and that makes everyone happy. It should be noted that Farnsworth and Hawkins are on one-year deals, so there is no long-term commitment.
Information from FirstInning.com and Cot’s Baseball Contracts was used in this post.
Promotion Candidates May 17, 2008
Posted by Pablo Zevallos in Brett Gardner, Dan McCutchen, Eric Hacker, Justin Snyder, Zach McAllister.add a comment
Many players in the Yankees system have grown into their own and have succeeded at their respective level in such a way that they ought to move along to the next stop in their path to the Major Leagues. Now I will list some players who deserve promotions:
2B/CF Justin Snyder, LoA Charleston
RHP Zach McAllister, LoA Charleston
RHP Eric Hacker, HiA Tampa
RHP Dan McCutchen, AA Trenton
OF Brett Gardner, AAA Scranton
Snyder is an interesting case, because he has a solid bat–.302/.363/.434–with gap power and solid patience. However, his fielding is, shall we say, atrocious, as he committed his 10th error before May. He has played some 2B, SS, and CF, though. There should be a space open, as 2B Damon Sublett is hitting 244/.343/.366, and CF is a platoon of Seth Fortenberry (.224/.353/.312) and bust Tim Battle. His fielding must improve, as his bat isn’t good enough to play just anywhere.
McAllister has always been well-regarded by followers of Yankees prospects, and it had been established that he would be many teams’ top pitching prospect because of his potential. He has broken out this year, pitching to the tune of 49IP, 7BB, 2.20 ERA. 7.89 K/9 and 1.28 BB/9. The number was lower before a rough outing in his second-to-last start. However, that would require an injury or demotion of one of Tampa’s starters. Ryan Pope, Ivan Nova, Eric Hacker, Alfredo Aceves, and Mike Dunn aren’t going anywhere down, and a spot will soon need to be opend for Chris Garcia to start his rehab process. There are no holes in the AA rotation, either. Now we look to the AAA rotation, but there is nothing that can spark a chain reaction, unless Hacker at HiA or Jones at AA are moved to the bullpen, which is where their future roles may reside.
Hacker has better stuff and a higher potential, but has always had injury problems. He is posting a godly 0.75 ERA in 48IP, allowing 27H and 7BB while striking out 29 and posting a 1.70 GO/AO ratio. However, as said in the McAllister section, there is simply no room in Trenton unless someone is sent down without merit or moved to the bullpen (or he himself moves to the bullpen).
Dan McCutchen was #8 on my prospect list this year, and while most people said it was too high, he’s making me look good 
. Cutch is posting a 2.52 ERA (again, only after he was roughed up in his last start) in 50 IP while striking out 46, allowing 38H and 15BB, and posting a 1.26 GO/AO ratio. He pitched 41 great innings last year at AA, and has nothing left to prove there. If McCutchen keeps excelling and Marquez keeps on making me look good (by being bad), they could be swapped.
Brett Gardner has held his own this year, hitting .287/.385/.449 with 2HRs–already doubling last year’s total–and 12 XBH. He has also stolen 12 bases and by all accounts has played solid defense. However, there is no definite spot on the Major League team. Morgan Ensberg can be DFA’d, but that would only come once Wilson Betemit or A-Rod comes off the DL, effectively changing nothing for Gardner and leaving no back-up INF for now. Alberto Gonzales has been hitting and fielding well, leaving no reason why he should be demoted. The only real candidate is Shelley Duncan, because he hasn’t hit at all this year and his glove is sub-par. Gardner would add a late-inning pinch runner and a 5th OF, but he deserves to play every day.
The promotion stories prove what I said during the off-season, that there is a pitching logjam in the Yankee system. Too much good pitching, if that can be said, is in the organization, and that will inhibit opportunities for lower-level prospects who can rise high. As for Gardner, he will have to likely wait out the year.
Melancon, Cox Promoted May 17, 2008
Posted by Pablo Zevallos in J. Brent Cox, Mark Melancon.add a comment
RHPs Mark Melancon and J.B. Cox were promoted, from A+ Tampa to AA Trenton and Trenton to AAA Scranton, respectively. Melancon, recovering from Tommy John surgery, had a 2.84 ERA in 25.1IP, allowing 26H and 6BB while striking out 20, and posting a 1.00 GO/AO ratio. Cox, also recovering from Tommy John and already having been promoted from Tampa to Trenton, posted a 1.35 ERA in 6.2IP at Trenton, allowing 3H and 2BB while striking out 6, and also posting a 1.00 GO/AO.
These numbers look particularly good considering their respective rough starts to the season. These two prospects, going at the rate they are, should be in the majors by year’s end, and have potential as solid set-up guys in the bullpen.
Possibility of Hosmer Falling to the Yanks May 17, 2008
Posted by Pablo Zevallos in 2008 MLB Draft, Eric Hosmer, Scott Boras.2 comments
Here’s something to get Yankee fans salivating: there is a real chance that American Heritage (FL) 1B Eric Hosmer falls to the Yankees. First, let’s see the draft order:
| 1 | Tampa Bay Devil Rays |
| 2 | Pittsburgh Pirates |
| 3 | Kansas City Royals |
| 4 | Baltimore Orioles |
| 5 | San Francisco Giants |
| 6 | Florida Marlins |
| 7 | Cincinnati Reds |
| 8 | Chicago White Sox |
| 9 | Washington Nationals |
| 10 | Houston Astros |
| 11 | Texas Rangers |
| 12 | Oakland Athletics |
| 13 | St. Louis Cardinals |
| 14 | Minnesota Twins |
| 15 | Los Angeles Dodgers |
| 16 | Milwaukee Brewers |
| 17 | Toronto Blue Jays |
| 18 | New York Mets (from Atlanta) |
| 19 | Chicago Cubs |
| 20 | Seattle Mariners |
| 21 | Detroit Tigers |
| 22 | New York Mets |
| 23 | San Diego Padres |
| 24 | Philadelphia Phillies |
| 25 | Colorado Rockies |
| 26 | Arizona Diamondbacks |
| 27 | Minnesota Twins (from LA Angels) |
| 28 | New York Yankees |
| 29 | Cleveland Indians |
| 30 | Boston Red Sox |
Hosmer’s talent should ideally place him in the 5-10 range. However, Hosmer, who works with Scott Boras, has rumored demands of a $7 million, Major League contract, a large bounty on a high school player. As Jim Callis of BA pointed out yesterday, the Giants at #5 would prefer S. Carolina U 1B Justin Smoak, as he is the better player and is more polished. The Marlins at #6 are already maxed-out after signing Hanley Ramirez long-term and still having a small payroll until the revenues of the new stadium, and could instead go for UMiami 1B Yonder Alonso, a masher with less demands. The Reds (7), White Sox (8), and Astros (10) have established firstbasemen, and the Nationals (9) have recently converted top prospect Chris Marrerro in their system.
However, the first candidate to get Hosmer is Texas at #11. The Rangers don’t have an adequate firstbaseman now (depending on how you consider Jarrod Saltalamacchia), but one of Hank Blalock or Chris Davis will be moved there when Davis comes up. Blalock won’t stop the Rangers from drafting Hosmer, but Davis and his enormous power might. However, the Rangers aren’t afraid to negotiate with Boras, as seen by Alex Rodriguez’s then-record 10yr/$252M deal.
The next threat is Toronto at #17, who have an average/mediocre 1B in Lyle Overbay and don’t have a replacement in the system. They certainly have the money, with a $97M payroll for the season. The only question, again would be negotiating with Boras, as they have no major Boras-represented players in their organization.
Then there’s the Mets at #18. This is the likeliest place for Hosmer to be taken, as the Mets have an aging Carlos Delgado, who walks after this year, and no one in sight to replace him. Rumor has it that top prospect Fernando Martinez may be moved to 1B, but he hasn’t produced enough for his bat to play well there. The Mets have the third-highest payroll in baseball, coming in at $137.8M, and have a barren system. The Mets have also dealt with Boras players LHP Oliver Perez and CF Carlos Beltran, and they drafted RHP Mike Pelfrey, a Boras client, in the 1st round, though the negotating process took 7 months.
Detroit at #21 is the last threat before the Yankees. Detroit has spent heavily on the first round in the past for years, grabbing Justin Verlander, Cameron Maybin, Andrew Miller (previous two now with the Marlins), and Rick Porcello. They do have Miguel Cabrera at 1B, but he can always be moved back to 3B as Carlos Guillen is no guarantee to stay healthy with his knees, and will be 33 at year’s end. The smart thing to do would be to rebuild the farm system and draft someone like OF/RHP Aaron Hicks, as he would be a 1st-round talent at either position, but Hosmer’s talent may be too much to pass up.
Let’s not forget the Yankees might not take Hosmer, either. They had a bad experience with Boras over A-Rod this winter, but they have the money and a slot in the organization.
In total, I rate the possibility of Hosmer falling to NYY as unlikely, but possible.
UPDATE, 05/18/08 11:22 AM: Just read on MLB Draft University, which cites a Jim Callis chat saying that the Mets, whom I previously picked to land Hosmer and his $7M, that the Mets will not go over slot. So much for that…
Baseball America’s First-Round Mock Draft May 17, 2008
Posted by Pablo Zevallos in 2008 MLB Draft.add a comment
Yesterday Baseball America posted their first mock draft. They have the Yankees taking Kyle Lobstein:
The obvious move would be for New York to use its financial muscle to pay what it takes to get whatever top talent falls because of signability. Hosmer would be a coup for the Yankees, but Cole could be too raw for their tastes. They’ve been scouting a lot of lefthanded pitchers, making high schoolers Kyle Lobstein (Arizona), Brett DeVall (Florida), Mike Montgomery (California) and Robbie Ross (Kentucky) candidates.
I’m not a draft expert, but the consensus is that Lobstein would be a reach in the first round, and he is likely available when the Yankees pick again at #44. I would prefer a power-hitting firstbaseman at this spot–Allen Dykstra, David Cooper, and maybe even Eric Hosmer. I wouldn’t mind DeVall falling to the Yankees, as he has better stuff than Lobstein and is a consensus 1st round talent anyway. But there are so many good pitchers in our system that I don’t think we need another, even if DeVall is left-handed.
Joba’s Fistpump May 17, 2008
Posted by Pablo Zevallos in Joba Chamberlain.add a comment
Ever since Joba Chamberlain pumped his fist after striking out David Dellucci two days after (somehow) serving up to him a home run, the media has been in a frenzy over whether it is appropriate. Personally, I don’t have a problem and I would actually encourage him to keep on doing it.
The fistpump is obviously a show of emotion. Joba is even-keeled at certain times, but baseball is really important to him and by all accounts he is an emotional kid. Dennis Eckersely did it, and no one seemed to care much. No one makes a big deal when Barry Bonds or Manny Ramirez stare down the pitcher after hitting a towering home run. What’s the deal with hatin’ on Joba?
Series Recaps, vs. Cleveland, @ Detroit, @ Tampa Bay May 17, 2008
Posted by Pablo Zevallos in Uncategorized.add a comment
The Yankees won 1 of 3 against Cleveland, 1 of 2 against Detroit, and 1 of 4 against Tampa Bay, adding up to a 3-9 record over the last 12 games. The pitching has been mostly adequate, save for Andy Pettitte’s rough outings against Cleveland ant TB and Kei Igawa getting rocked in Detroit. However, the offense has been stagnant, scoring 2.8 runs per game in this span, and the constant problem is hitting with runners with scoring position, with a line of .249/.334/.386 over the season. The line drops to .228/.328/.346 with RISP w/ 2 outs. Granted, Alex Rodriguez and Jorge Posada are on the DL, but the rest of the team has talented players–Johnny Damon, Derek Jeter, Bobby Abreu, Robinson Cano, Jason Giambi, with even Melky Cabrera showing what he can do–who should be able to pick up the slack. The pitching isn’t good enough–yet–to win us a championship.
Series Preview, Cleveland @ NYY May 5, 2008
Posted by Pablo Zevallos in Uncategorized.1 comment so far
Pitching Matchups:
Pettitte (3-3, 3.93 ERA) v. Carmona (3-1, 2.60 ERA)
Wang (6-0, 3.00 ERA) v. Lee (5-0, 0.96 ERA)
Mussina (4-3, 4.23 ERA) v. Byrd (1-2, 3.72 ERA)
The Yankees have historically done well against Carmona, one of the better sinkerballers in the AL. Pettitte did well until the 5th inning, when he melted down and allowed four runs. Wang v. Lee is a pitcher’s duel, and, based on how Wang did against Cleveland last time and also based on Lee’s ridiculous numbers, that’s a toss-up. Mussina did well junk-balling against the Indians, while pitchers like Byrd get some swings and misses against the Yankees, but there’s always that inning where a pitcher like him blows up against us.
PREDICTION: Yankees, 2 of 3. The Yankees lose Pettitte’s start but it’s not his fault, as one of the middle relievers (ahem LaTroy Hawkins) has a meltdown. The Yankees go on to win a tight one decided late against the Indians, and the last game is a high-scoring affair where the Yankees simply outscore their way through. Hopefully the Yankee offense is clicking by now.
The Development of Chien-Ming Wang and Melky Cabrera May 5, 2008
Posted by Pablo Zevallos in Chien-Ming Wang, Melky Cabrera.add a comment
Prior to this year, we thought that what we would get from Chien-Ming Wang and Melky Cabrera was all we were going to get throughout the primes of their careers. We knew Wang and his turbo sinker were going to get groundball outs against every team except the Red Sox and Blue Jays and that Melky would be a fringe starter with a rocket arm in CF. Or so we thought.
This year, Wang has matured as a pitcher, throwing more sliders and changeups, and even more of his mid-90’s 4-seamer while still using that sinker often. He’s getting better results–45IP, 38H, 13BB, but, more notably, 32Ks, or 6.4Ks/9. Previously that rate was below 3, and he was getting extreme amounts of groundballs, which, do to where they may land and the quality of a defense, aren’t dependable. Strikeouts are infinitely more dependable and can get a pitcher out of a tight spot really easily. While previously posting G/F rates of 2.96, 3.06, and 2.68 in his career, now he’s posting a more normal rate of 1.92. Now he has more ace potential, rather than just a really good #2.
Melky Cabrera’s development is even more shocking. He’s slugged .391 in back-to-back seasons, hitting 7 and 8 HRs in those seasons. He walked a combined 99 times and hit 1.48 and and 1.81 groundballs to flyballs. Everything has changed. Now he has 6HRs (the most notable change), is seeing a hair under 4 pitches per PA, and is hitting more balls in the air–1.08 G/F. What has led to this? Despite his height, he has bulked up to an even 200lbs, so some of those line drives become homers. But he is also swinging a bit harder and has better timing to make powerful contact, and he isn’t just swing as much with his arms. I am just now starting to see the Carlos Beltran comparisons, and while I don’t think he’ll ever hit 41 HRs, I could definitely see something like his age 24 season, with a bit less strikeouts and bit less steals. But this kid will be good, and there will be soon be a Major League OF glut.
