Yankees: Looking for the Future

Prior to this year, we thought that what we would get from Chien-Ming Wang and Melky Cabrera was all we were going to get throughout the primes of their careers. We knew Wang and his turbo sinker were going to get groundball outs against every team except the Red Sox and Blue Jays and that Melky would be a fringe starter with a rocket arm in CF. Or so we thought.

This year, Wang has matured as a pitcher, throwing more sliders and changeups, and even more of his mid-90’s 4-seamer while still using that sinker often. He’s getting better results–45IP, 38H, 13BB, but, more notably, 32Ks, or 6.4Ks/9. Previously that rate was below 3, and he was getting extreme amounts of groundballs, which, do to where they may land and the quality of a defense, aren’t dependable. Strikeouts are infinitely more dependable and can get a pitcher out of a tight spot really easily. While previously posting G/F rates of 2.96, 3.06, and 2.68 in his career, now he’s posting a more normal rate of 1.92. Now he has more ace potential, rather than just a really good #2.

Melky Cabrera’s development is even more shocking. He’s slugged .391 in back-to-back seasons, hitting 7 and 8 HRs in those seasons. He walked a combined 99 times and hit 1.48 and and 1.81 groundballs to flyballs. Everything has changed. Now he has 6HRs (the most notable change), is seeing a hair under 4 pitches per PA, and is hitting more balls in the air–1.08 G/F. What has led to this? Despite his height, he has bulked up to an even 200lbs, so some of those line drives become homers. But he is also swinging a bit harder and has better timing to make powerful contact, and he isn’t just swing as much with his arms. I am just now starting to see the Carlos Beltran comparisons, and while I don’t think he’ll ever hit 41 HRs, I could definitely see something like his age 24 season, with a bit less strikeouts and bit less steals. But this kid will be good, and there will be soon be a Major League OF glut.