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Hughes is Effective, Yankees Win March 25, 2008

Posted by Pablo Zevallos in 2008 Spring Training.
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Phil Hughes had a good outing yesterday, pitching 5 innings and allowing 3H, 3ER, 2BB, and 6K’s. The WHIP is good, but he used 86 pitches for 5 innings, meaning he needs to be more economical. The Yankees roughed up the Phillies, 13-4, and former Twins top prospect JD Durbin got the worst of it, surrendering 6ER and a 3-run to Robinson Cano and a solo shot to Melky Cabrera in the fifth inning.

Overall, though, the Yankees’ offense was clicking, as they had 19 hits and three homeruns (Jason Giambi homered off Jamie Moyer in the third). Mariano Rivera was sharp, striking out the side and walking one. Billy Traber allowed a run, but the lefty job is essentially his anyway. LaTroy Hawkins was also sharp, and Brian Bruney made his case for the last spot in the bullpen with a scoreless 9th inning.

Yankees Opening Day Roster Prediction March 24, 2008

Posted by Pablo Zevallos in 2008 Opening Day, 2008 Spring Training, Roster Competitions.
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Here’s my first crack at projecting the Opening Day roster. Note that there will be a long reliever and likely a lefty in the bullpen.

Lineup
LF Johnny Damon
SS Derek Jeter
RF Bobby Abreu
3B Alex Rodriguez
1B Jason Giambi
DH Hideki Matsui
C Jorge Posada
2B Robinson Cano
CF Melky Cabrera

I think the lineup should have Cano batting 5th and Matsui 8th, but I just don’t see Girardi doing that.

Bench
INF Wilson Betemit
3B/1B Morgan Ensberg
1B/OF Shelley Duncan
C Jose Molina

While the Yankees would love a speedy pinch runner and/or a true utility infielder, Betemit and Ensberg are versatile enough and hit too well for them to carry Bernie Castro or Nick Green.

Rotation
SP1 Chien-Ming Wang
SP2 Andy Pettitte
SP3 Mike Mussina
SP4 Ian Kennedy
SP5 Phil Hughes

Note that I am determining this based on innings, as the first two pitchers will pitch over 200 innings, with the last three slots pieced together based on innings caps and an aging veteran.

Bullpen
LR Darrell Rasner
MR LaTroy Hawkins
MR Kyle Farnsworth
MR Billy Traber
MR Scott Patterson
SU Joba Chamberlain
CL Mariano Rivera

Girardi will likely take a lefty, as it is his preference and Traber has done a solid job. Patterson’s spring performance will win him the last bullpen spot, and Ross Ohlendorf will continue his bullpen seasoning in AAA S/W-B. I’ve been predicting that LaTroy Hawkins’s 63% groundball rate won’t hold up and he’ll be out by mid-summer, and I’m maintaining that.

This is a solid roster. Some things will no doubt have changed by the end of the year (Hawkins, Farnsworth, Damon traded? Joba to rotation?). Prospects will be called up, disappointments will be DFA’d. This team has its share of broken-down, aging veterans (Damon, Matsui, Giambi, with Abreu, Posada, and Jeter soon to follow) who may not last the full season. There will be growing pains with the Big 3. The bullpen is full of question marks who can well be busts.

This is not to say there aren’t players on the rise. Robinson Cano is a rising star and the second-best 2B in the league. While comparisons to Carlos Beltran and Bernie Williams are silly at this point, Melky Cabrera will be (at least) a league-average CF. The Big 3 will have its moments to shine, and Wang, only 27, will get it done with his hard sinker.

The offense is no longer a 1,000 run offense. The pitching is somewhat suspect, and there are a fair amount of questions on this team. Regardless, I see that the Yankees still have enough to scrape a 92-70 record because there still is talent. However, they will barely miss the playoffs.

Wang Tapped as Opening Day Starter March 22, 2008

Posted by Pablo Zevallos in 2008 Opening Day, 2008 Spring Training, Chien-Ming Wang.
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Yesterday, Joe Girardi named Chien-Ming Wang as the starter on Opening Day. This was essentially known for weeks–his Spring Training assignments have been on track with Opening Day, and he merited the start anyway. At least it’s not Carl Pavano this year.

  • Andy Pettitte and Robinson Cano were scratched from today’s game with back issues. Jon Alabadejo started and punched his ticket to Scranton, allowing 6 ER in 1/3 IP. However, the game was canceled after an inning and a half due to rain.

Minor Notes: Cox Returns, Duncan Impresses March 20, 2008

Posted by Pablo Zevallos in 2008 Spring Training, Eric Duncan, J. Brent Cox, Kevin Reese.
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  • J.B. Cox returned on the mound after missing a year with Tommy John Surgery, and threw in a minor-league game. He threw only fastballs and sliders–no changeups–and felt good. He is at Hi-A Tampa, and will advance to AAA S/W-B when the weather is appropriate.
  • Eric Duncan has impressed in Minor League games. Per Chad Jennings’s box scores, he is 4-14 (.286) with a HR, 3 RBIs, 1 BB, and 4 K’s in 4 games. Not bad.
  • Kevin Reese has returned to the Yankees…as as scout. Reese last played in 2007 with S/W-B, but retired after finishing the year on the DL and being released. He will now scout the Sally and Appalachian Leagues for the Yanks.

Our New Rivals March 20, 2008

Posted by Pablo Zevallos in 2008 Spring Training, Rivalry, Tampa Bay Rays.
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Add to Detroit, LAA, Boston, and the Mets, Tampa Bay. Francisco Cervelli’s wrist was unjustly broken, just as he was poised for a breakout year, by some AAAA second baseman who wasn’t going to make the team. What gives? Joe Girardi was right in complaining about it, and in reacting, Joe Maddon was a gigantic asshole. So the Yankees rightfully hit uber-prospect Evan Longoria, and Shelley Duncan slid into Akinori Iwamura. Jonny Gomes (?) fought with Duncan, and Melky Cabrera allegedly (I didn’t see this one either) punched Longoria. Duncan and Cabrera were handed 3-game suspensions, and Gomes a 2-gamer. I won’t even get into how unfair this is, but at least our guys will play Opening Day.

The Rays will be good soon. They have #1 overall pick LHP David Price, LHP Jake McGee, RHP Wade Davis, SS Reid Brignac, OF Desmond Jennings, and, of course, 3B Longoria either now or waiting in the wings. The new ownership will expand payroll with the new stadium, GM Andrew Friedman is committed, and all those #1 picks and losing actually mean something. Joe Maddon is the last installment of the loser culture that needs to be removed, but those prospects, combined with LF Carl Crawford, CF B.J. Upton, LHP Scott Kazmir, 1B Carlos Pena, and (for the next year or two) SU Al Reyes and CL Troy Percival, would make a powerhouse AL East team. They won’t be a joke anymore, and there will be four teams fighting for control (BOS, NYY, TB, TOR), not just two. The Yankees are on the decline in some aspects and on the rise in others, and could very well find themselves third in the AL East in 2010. This rivalry will be interesting to follow in the years to come.

Brett Gardner March 20, 2008

Posted by Pablo Zevallos in 2008 Spring Training, Brett Gardner.
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Brett Gardner’s been tearing it up in Spring Training, spraying doubles and triples everywhere, stealing bases, legging out bunts, and doing everything the Yankees have asked of him. He is a dynamic player the Yankees haven’t had in a while (I can’t remember how long, in fact!). He has shown good defense in centerfield was well, and, overall, has impressed this spring.

All of the top prospects from the lower to mid levels (Jesus Montero, Austin Jackson, Jose Tabata, Alan Horne, Juan Miranda, etc.) have been sent to minor league camp. Now, Brett Gardner isn’t a top prospect (no matter what BA thinks of him), but, in retrospect, he isn’t quite the #25 guy on the top 30 as I put him in November. Also, he hasn’t been moved or optioned, either. It seems as if the Yankees are giving this kid a shot to make this team, though I just don’t see where that would be.

I would love to move Johnny Damon. All the stuff he does for the troops is nice, but he’s in the same shape to start Spring Training as he was last year. He’s batting .242/.286/.394, subpar numbers. Gardner has been given as many at-bats as A-Rod, and more than Hideki Matsui and Jason Giambi. He’s hitting .393/.469/.536, which is highly impressive. While he won’t do that in the regular season, he can certainly do better than Damon’s line, which is how I project him to start the year (again). His contract was mentioned in trade discussions in passing this winter with Atlanta and San Francisco, but nothing materialized. He’s 33 and won’t be getting younger or better. He’s taking away a spot from a younger and superior player than Damon is at this point. As GM Brian Cashman said, Gardner is Juan Pierre who can take a walk. He would give us a true leadoff man, and an entertainment on the basepaths and in the field. This man should make the team, but needs to play every day, and that can only happen in AAA. Anyone want Damon?

Mid-Spring Roster Competition Updates March 20, 2008

Posted by Pablo Zevallos in 2008 Spring Training, Roster Competitions.
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FIRST BASEMAN: 1) DRAW–Shelley Duncan and Jason Giambi 2) Morgan Ensberg (distant 2nd)
Observations: Duncan’s impressive spring training has continued, with the high (or, if you look at it differently, low) point of the season sliding into Akinori Iwamura and sticking up for his teammates. Meanwhile, I still can’t recognize Jason Giambi besides #25 (he’s in that good shape), and his approach at the plate is more balanced. The stats are proving it, too. Ensberg will stick around as a back-up infielder with Wilson Betemit, with the latter’s performance wiping out the chance of platoon appearances for Giambi and Duncan.
UTILITY INFIELDER: 1) Wilson Betemit/Morgan Ensberg tandem 2) Nick Green 3) Bernie Castro 4) Chris Woodward 5) Cody Ransom
Observations: The tandem has the best shot because of Betemit’s $2M contract and what was given up to get him (Scott Proctor) despite his performance with the Yankees last year and his spring this year, and because of Ensberg’s strong spring despite no home runs. Betemit would face righties and Ensberg lefties. Nick Green has been giving himself a shot, lifting himself from the depths of the low interstates to have the game-winning hit against Cleveland this week, and hit a shot against Pittsburgh yesterday. Bernie Castro’s speed is something the Yankees don’t have much of, and haven’t had since Tony Womack was here. He can also handle the bat well. However, he needs to hit better to make it over more seasoned guys with more lucrative contracts. Chris Woodward has shown solid fielding and versatility despite lackluster fielding. He likely won’t make the team, though, because there are better options. Same for Cody Ransom, who, on the opposite, has hit decently well but has made several errors when he’s played. He likely gets a AAA job, though.
LONG RELIEVER: 1) Jeff Karstens 2) Darrell Rasner
Observations: I just don’t see how either makes the team. Karstens impressed until he was lit up in relief recently, and he’s been given many chances by the Yankees since 2006, and hasn’t delivered in the past 1+ year. On the other hand, Rasner nearly allowed a run against a college team (not good when trying to make a Major League team. He hasn’t impressed this spring at all, and his velocity is down a little. Joe Girardi is looking for a long man, but these two aren’t capable of the job. If you want to bring up Kei Igawa–well, he hasn’t even appeared recently in a game, so…
LEFTY SPECIALIST: 1) Billy Traber 2) Heath Phillips
Observations: Traber was added to the 40-man, and has pitched lights-out this spring against lefties, so the job is essentially his. Phillips has faded fast, with a poor relief outing topped with an awful first inning in the Shelley Slide game (and beaning Evan Logoria).
6TH and 7th BULLPEN: 1) Scott Patterson 2) DRAW–Edwar Ramirez and Chris Britton 4) DRAW–Ross Ohlendorf and Jonathan Alabadejo 6) Jose Veras 7) Brian Bruney
Note I added 6th bullpen because I don’t think there will be a trademark long man on this team. Scott Patterson has consistently impressed in Spring Training with the major leaguers still in the game. He hasn’t allowed a run this spring, and should make for a solid reliever. The only reason people don’t give him enough credit is because he’s a 29-year-old former Indy Leaguer. For the final spot, I see it as a draw between Edwar Ramirez and Chris Britton. Both have been solid if unspectacular, and Ramirez posts the higher strikeout numbers while Britton keeps getting outs on the ground. If anything, Ramirez gets the nod because he gives the ‘pen a different look, a changeup artist as opposed to a hard-thrower. Moreover, Britton seems to have gotten fatter–not a good sign with Joe Girardi managing. Ohlendorf’s spring has taken a turn for the worse with back-to-back subpar outings, and he now doesn’t figure to make this team till later in the year. Alabadejo’s awful start to the spring has improved drastically, but it’s too little, too late for him. Veras has been consistently ineffective, giving up runs in many of his outings (albeit it “only” being about 1 run), and Bruney hasn’t pitched much.

One for the Ages March 20, 2008

Posted by Pablo Zevallos in 2008 Spring Training, Virginia Tech.
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Well, the title is “One for the Ages”. What does that mean? Well, for one, I was sick in an ugly way for 2+ weeks (explaining why I couldn’t post), and I’m finally better now. But that’s not what was for the ages.

Tuesday, the Yankees played a Spring Training Game at Virginia Tech to help with the healing process after a madman took his and 32 other lives on campus. A-Rod sat in the VT dugout forever to sign autographs, and prominent people at VT came in to the broadcast booth expressing perennial gratitude. The stadium was packed, and everyone was excited. The final score (11-0) didn’t matter, and despite impressive performances by some of the pitchers (particularly Brandon Fisher of VT), the Yankees did what they needed to do.

Roster Competition Updates March 8, 2008

Posted by Pablo Zevallos in 2008 Spring Training.
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Presenting the roster competition updates. I have here the position, leader (1), and runner-up(s).

FIRST BASEMAN: 1) DRAW–Shelley Duncan and Jason Giambi 2) Morgan Ensberg (distant 2nd)
LONG RELIEVER: 1) Jeff Karstens 2) Darrell Rasner 3) Kei Igawa (distant 3rd)
LEFTY SPECIALIST: 1) Billy Traber 2) Heath Phillips 3) Sean Henn 4) Kei Igawa (distant 4th) 5) Chase Wright (distant 5th)
7TH BULLPEN: 1) Ross Ohlendorf 2) Scott Patterson 3) DRAW–Edwar Ramirez and Chris Britton 5) Jonathan Alabadejo 6) Jose Veras 7) Brian Bruney

Note that there is no obligated long reliever role, and if none impresses going forward, the 5 spot would be the winning reliever otherwise. Also note that there is no obligated lefty specialist role, and if none impresses going forward, the 6 spot would also be a righty.

Andy Pettitte’s Slidestep March 8, 2008

Posted by Pablo Zevallos in 2008 Spring Training, Andy Pettitte.
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In the YES broadcast yesterday against the Astros, I heard Michael Kay mention Andy Pettitte’s new slidestep. He saw that, although Pettitte’s 5 pickoffs last year led the league, it wasn’t as high a total as it used to be because baserunners picked things up from scouting reports that helped them guess when and when not to steal. The slidestep is meant to take away that ability to guess. However, the slidestep rushes the delivery, leaving a higher chance that the ball would be high in the strikezone, which would lead to increased home runs allowed.

At the time, Pettitte nicked speed demon Michael Bourn with a pitch, and journeyman Victor Diaz was at the plate. Using the slidestep, on the next pitch, Diaz hit a homer the other way. You might ask, why is this important? Well, Andy Pettitte has never been given up many home runs in his career–about 20 in a full season’s worth. The slidestep leads to increased home run numbers (see: Lilly, Ted) and, coupled with Pettitte turning 36 in April (meaning diminished stuff), his stats might decline.