Minor League Playoffs Abstract September 14, 2008
Posted by Pablo Zevallos in Austin Jackson, Ian Kennedy, Jhonny Nunez, Justin Christian, Minor League Playoffs, Phil Hughes.2 comments
The Minor League Playoffs are over. Now time to briefly recap the Yankee affiliates’ fortunes in September (all awards are post-season only):
AAA Scranton/Wilkes-Barre won the Governor’s Cup, which means they are the best of the International League. They beat the stacked Durham Bulls (David Price, Wade Davis, Jeff Niemann, anyone?) 20-2 in the finale and 3-1 in the series overall.
MVP: OF Justin Christian. There’s not much to choose from, but he orchestrated the comeback after Niemann’s dominating performance and also was instrumental to start the beating in the final game (3-7, 3 RBI).
Best Pitcher: Phil Hughes. Is there much of a competition. I think 25 Ks in his 13 IP (one run) would do that for you. ‘Nuff said.
Scranton will now face AAA Sacramento (A’s) in the Bricktown Showdown. It’ll be on ESPN2 on Tuesday, and the MVP will receive the first-time ever Bobby Murcer Award. Ian Kennedy will start that game (h/t Chad Jennings and Mike at RAB)
AA Trenton is the Eastern League Champion after defeating Akron (CLE) 5-1 in the final game, and 3-1 in the series.
MVP: Austin Jackson. He homered off laptop thief Clay Buchholz earlier in the postseason, and also did so again yesterday. He also robbed two homers yesterday and drove in a run today.
Best Pitcher: There’s a few intersting candidates, but I’ll go with RHP Jhonny Nunez. He was manager Tony Franklin’s go-to guy in the postseason and flat-out dominating since coming here. (h/t Mike Ashmore)
SS Staten Island didn’t make it out of the first round of their playoffs.
LVP: Casey Erickson, for allowing six runs in 2IP in his start.
HiA Tampa, LoA Charleston and GCL Yankees did not make the playoffs.
Yankees Win Two of Three in Oakland June 14, 2008
Posted by Pablo Zevallos in Andy Pettitte, Chien-Ming Wang, Ian Kennedy, Oakland A's, Series Recaps.add a comment
Overall, the Yankees did well in Oakland. The first game was one where Wang came up huge and regained his form. (See here for more details.) In the second game, a Jason Giambi error didn’t help Darrell Rasner, who took a page out of the IPK book and started nibbling, getting shelled for 7ER in 3.2IP. At that point, the rest of the game didn’t matter. However, birthday boy Hideki Matsui hit a grand slam for the Yankees’s only runs in the last game of the series against Justin Duscherer. Matsui’s slam was the only time a Yankee has ever hit a grand slam on his birthday.
The pitching was generally good, as Wang had a great first game and Andy Pettitte pitched eight innings of 1-run ball. Both Wang and Petttitte returned to form, which is nice to see and hopefully continues. The offense wasn’t great (3, 4, and 4 runs scored) , but it was enough to win. The defense was also good save for two Jason Giambi errors.
However, Rasner’s outing was troubling. His prior performance this year wasn’t sustainable, with a 41% GB rate with only a 15.6% K/PA rate. Before his latest performance his FIP was almost a run higher than his ERA (now it is lower). Moreover, his HR/FB rate is remarkably low at 4%, less than the league average at 11%. Now that he has seemingly touched earth, it remains to be seen how long he gets before he gives way to Phil Hughes or Ian Kennedy.
Dramatic Endings Are Nice, But Questions Remain June 7, 2008
Posted by Pablo Zevallos in Andy Pettitte, Chien-Ming Wang, Dave Eiland, Ian Kennedy, Joba Chamberlain, Phil Hughes.add a comment
In two of the last three, the Yankee game has ended with a walk-off hit of some sort. On Thursday, it was a monster Jason Giambi homerun 15 rows back in the upper deck, and today it was a Johnny Damon double down the line to beat the Royals. Giambi’s homer came on a day that was almost lost and ruined by Chien-Ming Wang, who continues his struggles, and Damon’s 6-6 day (tying an American League record for most hits in a 9 inning game–truly amazing!) and his last double made everything right for the Yankees, who bunted Derek Jeter in the first inning (why???) and Andy Pettitte. Pettitte’s struggles continue, as he gave up 10ER and two HRs after surrendering three leads in his last start in Minnesota.
Wang and Pettitte are the anchors of this rotation. They both have enough stuff to get it done, Wang of course moreso than Pettitte. Wang’s GAS (glove side shoulder), according to pitching coach Dave Eiland and catcher Jorge Posada, has started to fly open, preventing his trademark sinker from sinking, and inhibiting proper command. Pettitte has lost about 2MPH from his fastball, now being 87-89 instead of 88-92 like last year. That prevents proper separation from his cutter, which checks in at 84-87, more often on the higher side than the lower side on that range. That can be explained by age and throwing the cutter so much, as throwing the cutter can cause reduction in velocity earlier than usual. In addition, he also looses command of his cutter at times, preventing him from establishing it and thus his other pitches. However, he doesn’t use his other pitches enough at times. He can go too cutter-heavy and then hitters know what to look for, so they just sit on it. He needs to use his curveball and changeup more, and stop being quite so desperate.
This raises the question of the effectiveness of Eiland. This year was supposed to be a transition year, with the offense a year older and Mike Mussina supposed to be somewhere between his stellar 2006 and shaky 2007. Chien-Ming was supposed to win 19 games (again) and Andy Pettitte was supposed to solidly hold the fort for the younger players. Phil Hughes was supposed to take a step forward from his 2007 debut, and Ian Kennedy, while not expected to put up numbers like he did in the minors and September of 2007, was supposed to be a reliable #4/#5 starter.
Almost none of it has happened consistently. Mussina has been great and leads the AL in wins with his slow, slower, slowest approach (Jamie Moyer, anyone?). Hughes and Kennedy are on the DL right now, and both were lit up for almost the whole season (though Kennedy was improving before his DL stint). Wang started well before flopping since the beginning of May, and Pettitte has been looking bad since the Mets series. Even Joba, who has done great, has walked almost 4.5 per 9. Eiland was supposed to be great, as he worked with the Big 3 in Scranton. However, retrospectively speaking, the three weren’t together for more than a month. Hughes was in Scranton for the first three weeks of the season before getting promoted, and was already an uber-prospect. He then returned for two rehab starts in July. Kennedy spent half of August and September there, while Chamberlain was there for a week. So his impact on the trio can’t be that big. Eiland, a former pitcher himself, seems like a nice guy, but in my book he’s on a short leash. I’d like to give him until Independence Day to see what happens. Wang and Pettitte should straighten themselves out by then, Kennedy should be back, and we’ll see how keeps Mussina keeps on doing. By then J.B. Cox and/or David Robertson is certain to be in the bigs, and we’ll see how that goes.
Hughes DL’ed, Kennedy Demoted May 5, 2008
Posted by Pablo Zevallos in Darell Rasner, Ian Kennedy, Phil Hughes.add a comment
When I first saw Phil Hughes on the DL, I thought that it was some sort of conspiracy just to get him to stop pitching while not having to deal with the potential ruckus of sending him to the minors. Turns out there’s more than just a quad strain, but also 2 broken ribs. Where’s the hammer, Brian 
? He’ll be out until July.
This is a shame, because while he wasn’t pitching well, pitching is better than not pitching, and he needs to get himself squared away with his mechanics (which SabreScouting and Carlos Gomez have detailed well), and he definitely needs to throw more sliders and changeups.
In the meantime, Ian Kennedy was optioned down to AAA. While he is a nice prospect, he is hurting the team with his loading the bases seemingly once every start and showing too much Mike Mussina-ness (nibbling) in him. Darrell Rasner (0.87 ERA) is the better choice, and did well on Sunday.
Mailbag #2 January 27, 2008
Posted by Pablo Zevallos in 30-rule for Pitchers, Alan Horne, Andy Pettitte, Chien-Ming Wang, Ian Kennedy, Jeff Marquez, Joba Chamberlain, Mike Mussina, Phil Hughes, Robinson Cano.add a comment
Presenting…our second mailbag.
What will the Yankees do with the six major league starters they have on the roster? Does Kennedy get demoted? Or do they skip starts with Chamberlain and Hughes using Kennedy to fill in?–Eric
No one has a definitive answer on that one yet. I think they could extend Hughes to about 160 innings, considering he threw ~146 in 2006 and ~110 this year. Ian Kennedy will be able to throw ~195 innings after throwing ~165 this year. Joba Chamberlain, who threw 112 innings this year, won’t go more than about 140 innings this year. Assuming a healthy starter throws 200 innings a year, and Andy Pettitte and Chien Ming-Wang match their innings total from last year, that leaves 147 innings to be accounted for. This number increases if you account for Joba Chamberlain either starting or finishing the year in the bullpen–let’s say he pitches 100 in the rotation and 40 in the bullpen. That now leaves us with 187 innings to fill. Mike Mussina doesn’t have the stuff, endurance, or adaptability to pitch that much, so let’s say he pitches 140 innings. That now leaves us with 47 innings. Jeff Marquez and Alan Horne will probably be major-league ready by October, and either could pitch in the bullpen in 2008 to start or end the year, and their innings cap will be around 180-185, so either one could step in. So, if you really think about it, you would need seven pitchers to get through the year–meaning Mike Mussina needs to come through.
Maybe you could show some of the commenter’s why the 30 rule is new wave. Look up just a few of them;
W. Ford 112 r, 207, 210, 230 ave.
B. Turley 7.3r, 60.3, 247.3, 212 ave.
M. Stottlemyer, 96.0r, 291.0, 252.7 ave.
F. Peterson, 215.0r, 181.3, 220 ave.
Pettitte, 175.0r, 221.0, 215.7 ave.
Moose, 87.7r, 241.0, 227 ave.
Now, I understand there is much more money involved with pitchers. If the other guys could do it, why can’t the big 3? I realize that one would have to evaluate each pitcher on the merits of pushing them (just a little bit) longer.–Old Ranger
The 30-rule is in place because studies on pitchers have proven that increasing a pitcher’s woarkload by my more than 30 innings a year gives him a significantly higher injury risk for the following season. Throwing a baseball isn’t a natural motion–throwing underhand is. Since most pitchers pitch over-the-top, there is increased stress on the shoulder and elbows when pitching, so it must be controlled. Otherwise, again, there will be injury.
Will Cano be keeping his number, 24? or switching back to 22?–Aubrey
Probably 24–I see no reason to change numbers.
BA Yankees Top 10 Prospects January 12, 2008
Posted by Pablo Zevallos in Alan Horne, Andrew Brackman, Austin Jackson, Baseball America Top 10 Prospects, Brett Gardner, Ian Kennedy, Joba Chamberlain, Jose Tabata, Ross Ohlendorf, Top 30 Prospects.5 comments
This is the Baseball America Yankees Top 10 Prospects list that came out on Monday:
1. Joba Chamberlain, rhp
2. Austin Jackson, of
3. Jose Tabata, of
4. Ian Kennedy, rhp
5. Alan Horne, rhp
6. Jesus Montero, c
7. Jeff Marquez, rhp
8. Brett Gardner, of
9. Ross Ohlendorf, rhp
10. Andrew Brackman, rhp
The list, in general, is only OK. The first five, I must say, are identical to our list. Montero at #6 is a bit high, but nothing really to complain about. Seven through nine, are a problem. John Manuel, managing the Yankees’ prospect list, says in the chat that he puts Marquez this high because Marquez is a pretty sure bet to be a #4/#5 in the Majors, particularly because of his sinker. I don’t buy it. Marquez has a great changeup and sinker, but he doesn’t get enough strikeouts (~5.5) to justify his inconsistent groundball rate, either. Gardner is a fourth outfielder/fringe starter, but Manuel reasons his spot because Gardner is very close to being major-league ready. Ohlendorf, another surprise at #9, maxes out as a solid 7th inning reliever, but Manuel says that Ohlendorf’s pitches each went up a grade since his move to the bullpen. These three reasonings are petty and radical, in my view.
Brackman at #10 is fine (we had him at #11).
However, I have one big problem with the list. There is no Dellin Betances to be found in the Top 10. Granted, while his #3 ranking last year could have been a hype machine result, it was widely known that many of Betances’s mechanical issues (as well as his stuff) was greatly improved after his drafting and being sent to Extended Spring Training. However, in the chat, Manuel states that after talking to people in the know, and watching him pitch, that there are still some concerns about mechanics and his rawness. But isn’t he a better prospect than the #7-10 players???
BA also presents the best tools list:
Best Hitter for Average Jose Tabata
Best Power Hitter Jesus Montero
Best Strike-Zone Discipline Brett Gardner
Fastest Baserunner Brett Gardner
Best Athlete Austin Jackson
Best Fastball Joba Chamberlain
Best Curveball Joba Chamberlain
Best Slider Joba Chamberlain
Best Changeup Edwar Ramirez
Best Control Ian Kennedy
Best Defensive Catcher Francisco Cervelli
Best Defensive Infielder Alberto Gonzalez
Best Infield Arm Marcos Vechionacci
Best Defensive Outfielder Austin Jackson
Best Outfield Arm Seth Fortenberry
I think this is a pretty good list. It differs drastically from the 2007 tools list. As can be seen (and expected), Joba dominates the pitching ranks. Austin Jackson’s improvement is also greatly improved.
The tools list makes up for the faltering of the rankings, making this a solid job by BA. I can’t wait until the book comes out to see what BA has to say on the Top 30 prospects (and who they are, of course).
Top 30 Prospects: #4 Ian Kennedy November 23, 2007
Posted by Pablo Zevallos in Ian Kennedy, Top 30 Prospects.7 comments
Age: 23
Height: 6′0″
Weight: 185
Drafted: 1st Round in 2006 out of USC
Position: Starting Pitcher
Throws: Right
Stuff: Kennedy does not have outstanding, or even great, stuff. He has no true plus pitch, but his curveball, changeup, and slider are above-average. Kennedy’s greatest tool is not is pitches, but his mind, and the way he approaches hitters, combined with his control, makes him difficult to hit on the mound, and that is what makes him great.
Control/Performance: Kennedy’s control is plus, and, as stated above, is his best weapon. Kennedy advanced through four levels of the minors this season, and his performance maintained a high level of excellence in HiA Tampa, AA Trenton, AAA Scranton, and even in the majors. In total in the minors, Kennedy went 12-3, with a 1.91 ERA and 163 K’s in 146.1 IP in 26 games and 25 starts, the strikeouts good for second best in the system. He allowed 91 H and 50 BB, and had an BAA of a mere .182. In the majors, Kennedy owned a 1.89 ERA in 19 IP and 3 games and starts, striking out 15 and allowing 13 H and 9 BB. His peripherals in the majors are not impressive, but they should improve with experience. He ended his season with a slight back injury and was thus left off the postseason roster.
Outlook: There are varying beliefs on Kennedy. Some believe he can be a decent #2/solid #3, and others believe he is strictly a back-end of the rotation starter. I tend to stand towards the former belief, because his mind and control compensate for the lack of great stuff. His peripherals in the minors were encouraging, and he should build on that success in the majors. Kennedy looks to start Spring Training in a competition for rotation spot with Joba Chamberlain, assuming Andy Pettitte comes back. GM Brian Cashman is seemingly more willing to deal Kennedy in a deal than the rest of the “trinity” of Chamberlain and Phil Hughes, so he could conceivably be moved for Johan Santana. He should be a Yankees rotation mainstay, if he stays, for years to come.
Ceiling: B+, Health: B+, Comparison: Mike Mussina
Yankees Eliminated, Torre’s Future in Doubt October 14, 2007
Posted by Pablo Zevallos in Austin Jackson, Brett Gardner, Chien-Ming Wang, Eric Duncan, Humberto Sanchez, Ian Kennedy, J. Brent Cox, Joba Chamberlain, Joe Torre, Johan Santana, Jose Tabata, Postseason, Ross Ohlendorf.add a comment
Due to the lack of updating, again, I haven’t mentioned a key event–the Yankees were eliminated. Now, this team had a couple of questions with them–Chien-Ming Wang (after the first game and based on his only other performance against Cleveland), the potential need to overuse Joba with a badly-timed slump by the Viz and the constant ineffectiveness of Farnsworth, and the revitalization of the offense after facing two Cy Young candidates. I felt that if the Yankees would have found a way to win this series, they were going all the way. Of course, they didn’t, and they are now stuck looking forward to Spring Training.
This loss doesn’t hurt as much as others, a point on which I agree on with the folks at the Bronx Block. Yes, what could have been is intriguing, but in a way, I was looking forward to see the likes of Marcos V. (can’t spell his last name), Eric Duncan, Juan Miranda, Ross Ohlendorf, and Alan Horne get their appropriate roles assigned, as well as seing Humberto Sanchez and J. Brent Cox come back from elbow surgery and win bullpen spots. There’s also David Robertson seemingly coming out of nowhere. Then there’s Jose Tabata, AJax, and Brett Gardner getting to big league camp and going off to their appropriate levels (that is, Tabata-AA, AJax–AA, Gardner–AAA/MLB). And, most obviously, I look forward to Mike Mussina being gone, Chien-Ming Wang packaged with Jeff Marquez or someone else for Johan Santan (just dreaming…), and Phil Hughes, Joba, and IPK winning rotation spots. Yankee fans, whether this loss is disheartening or not, there is a very bright future ahead of us.
Joe Torre’s future is also in doubt. If he leaves, I am ambivalent, because as nice a guy he is with great people skills, he’s 67 and won’t manage forever. That said, I am not thrilled with the Phil Garners or, until yesterday, Dusty Bakers of the world. Tony LaRussa, as a scout told the Daily News the other day, is not a long-term solution with horrible people skills. Don Mattingly probably needs another year or two as bench coach to be ready to manage, and Joe Girardi’s problems with Florida ownership scare me. The best bet is Torre for two years.
Phil Comes Up Huge, Yankees Continue Series and Torre Era with 8-4 Win October 8, 2007
Posted by Pablo Zevallos in Andy Pettitte, Chris Britton, Edwar Ramirez, George Steinbrenner, Hideki Matsui, Ian Kennedy, Joe Torre, Johnny Damon, Melky Cabrera, Phil Hughes, Postseason, Robinson Cano, Roger Clemens, Ron Villone.add a comment
Had the midges not attacked, we would be leading this series. But let’s not talk of what might have been.
Had the Yankees lost last night, we would be eliminated and Joe Torre out. Again, though, let’s not talk of what might have been.
Roger Clemens started last night, lasting a mere 2.2 innings while giving up a run in all of them. His hamstring flared up, and there is some likelihood he’ll never pitch again (if he doesn’t, at least he struck out some one to end his career.) Phil Hughes then came in, and after allowing a fly ball double to Jhonny Peralta in the third, he threw a very solid 3.1 innings, striking out 4 and walking none, and allowing only one other hit. If Clemens doesn’t pitch in the ALCS, should the Yankees get that far, count Hughes for Game 3 and Ian Kennedy (remember him?) for Game 4.
However, the momentum changed in the fifth. With the Yankees cutting the Indian lead to 3-2, Johnny Damon steps up to the plate with Robinson Cano and Melky Cabrera on base. He homers, and, seemingly out of nowhere, the Yankees have a 5-3 lead. Then, in the next inning, with the bases loaded on a questionable IBB for Hideki Matsui, Robinson Cano singles to right, but Trot Nixon lets the ball gets past him and all runners score. With the score then 8-3, the Yankees all but won the game.
Chien-Ming Wang will start tonight, and Andy Pettitte will likely start on Wednesday. However, with Clemens likely out for the rest of the postseason, the Yankees can add another pitcher to take his spot? The four candidates are Ian Kennedy, Chris Britton, Edwar Ramirez, and Ron Villone. It seems, after the first two games, the Yankees needed a long reliever, so that goes for Villone. Joe Torre’s preference for AAAA arms whom he tries to ride out, plus his changeup, states Ramirez’s case. Ian Kennedy gives them another starter, but he has never relieved, shouldn’t relieve with his finesse stuff, and we really don’t need a starter until the ALCS. Britton…well, I have previously written about him. The best bet is for Villone to make it, as he is a lefty, anyway.
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George Steinbrenner on multiple topics:
On Joe Torre: “His job is on the line. I think we’re paying him a lot of money. He’s the highest-paid manager in baseball, so I don’t think we’d take him back if we don’t win this series.”
On A-Rod: “I think we’ll re-sign him. I think he’s going to have a good run the rest of the (postseason). I think he realizes New York is the place to be, the place to play. A lot of this (postseason) is laying on his shoulders, you know, but I think he’s up to it.”
On his health: “I’m doing all right. I’m fine.” (Courtesy of Peter Abraham)
Post-Season Roster September 22, 2007
Posted by Pablo Zevallos in Brian Bruney, Doug Mientkewicvz, Edwar Ramirez, Ian Kennedy, Jason Giambi, Jose Veras, Mike Mussina, Phil Hughes, Postseason, Ron Villone, Shelley Duncan, Wilson Betemit.add a comment
Joe Torre has some interesting choices for his postseason roster. Mike Mussina has dominated his last two outings, but they have been against lesser teams that won’t be seen in the postseason. Ian Kennedy has dominated as well, but that was against Tampa Bay (decent lineup, really), Kansas City, and Toronto. Phil Hughes has had a resurgence of late as well, and he is in the mix.
Relievers: At this point, the remaining reliever spots will be two of Jose Veras, Ron Villone, Brian Bruney, and Edwar Ramirez. My gut tells me Veras is the only guarantee here, because he has impressed Torre a lot in September and is one of those no-namers that Torre rides out as long as he can (Tanyon Sturtze, Jeff Karstens, anyone?). The other three have serious flaws, so it will probably be the second-place finisher between that of Hughes, Mussina, and Kennedy. Kennedy, a finesse guy, probably won’t make the roster unless he is a starter, leaving Hughes and Mussina. Joe Torre always like experience, so I’ll say Mussina starts game 4 and Hughes is the long man. If you wonder why I don’t mention Chris Britton, it’s because he hasn’t exactly dominated outside of his 3 innings of long relief back in May, and Torre and Brian Cashman have held him back so much this season I don’t think he really has a shot.
Bench: There is one juicy debate here. The main point is which three of Jason Giambi, Doug Mientkewicvz (did I spell that right?), Shelley Duncan, or Wilson Betemit make the postseason. Without Betemit, the Yankees have no utility infielder, so I’ll assume he makes it despite his BA since coming to NY. Besides, he was the return for the best non-Mo Rivera reliver they had at the time, Scott Proctor, and Brian Cashman & Joe won’t give up on him that quickly. In the postseason, with groundball pitchers like Wang and Pettitte, fielding is important, so I’ll pick Doug Minky for this one. Last, we have two slumping DH/1B types, Shelley Duncan and Jason Giambi. Giambi is the veteran, but he has done much lately. On the other hand, neither has Duncan, but he has been around the postseason as a kid with his dad Dave Duncan and Tony LaRussa with the A’s (coincidentally, with Giambi). However, Duncan plays hard and can also play the corner OF spots, and he is a RH hitter, so I will pick Duncan to make it over Giambi.
This means that the Yankees have four bench players (13 batters) and 12 pitchers. In the postseason, idyllically one would have 13 pitchers and 12 batters, so maybe if one of Villone, Ramirez, or Bruney outshine Giambi/Duncan in the last few days, a pitcher could be taken. However, Ramirez gave up a home run to Alex Rios yesterday in the 8th inning, severely hurting his chances for a roster berth.
