Squandered Opportunities June 9, 2008
Posted by Pablo Zevallos in Alex Rodriguez, Brett Gardner, Game Recaps, Melky Cabrera, Mike Mussina.2 comments
I went to the game today with a friend who has season tickets in the nosebleed seats, even in the probably 100+ heat. It was quite the intense experience, but the stadium prices just sank me a bit.
But what sank me more was the poor play, at times, of the Yankees today. In the first inning, Johnny Damon led off with a single and stole a base. Now, Derek Jeter hit a flyball to fairly deep left-center, with Joey Gathright on the ball. Gathright doesn’t have an arm, as we know, but Damon fails to tag up. Why? Damon has plus speed and Gathright, as mentioned, has no arm. We didn’t know at the time, but the Yankees needed runs, and it never hurts to tack one on in the first inning. Granted, you never want to make the first or last out at third base, but you have to be aggressive. Had he done so he would have likely scored on Abreu’s flyball to left, also to Gathright.
But the eighth inning was more annoying. Jorge Posada leads off on a pinch-hit single with Chad Moeller subsequently pinch-running. Besides the blown call on the bunt by Ed Montague, who, with other umpires recently calling umpires, seems to be working for ESPN as opposed to MLB, Bobby Abreu grounds out weakly to first with Jeter on 1st (on a walk) and Moeller on 2nd. Abreu’s weak and unintersted swings are often at the worst times, and they make me and (I’m sure) other fans irate.
Worst of all was the ninth inning. The cutter to Guillen wasn’t a bad pitch, and I’m not sold that Damon could’ve gotten the homer. But with the bases loaded (even Moeller miraculously gets hit by a pitch!), Melky Cabrera grounds weakly to the pitcher. Soria has a plus 12-6 curve, but it’s not like he’ll blow you away (why you’d take a 90mph fastball in the bullpen and put it in the rotation is beyond me, but that’s for another day….). Beyond that, he looked overmatched at the plate, and he has yet to drive the ball. Maybe the blown call at 1B was in his head, but he has to get over that.
He may be an inspiring player, but Melky has to be benched, at least for a while. Of course, the loss is certainly not solely on his shoulders today. But today’s weak hack for a strikeout and his weak groundout to end the game don’t do much good for me.
On the bright side, Mike Mussina had a great day. Outside of the hanger to Miguel Olivo, Moose was changing speeds like a complete master and just owned some hitters with good pitches. He sat at86-88 with his fastbal, topping out at 90. I love his use of his 2-seamer, and I think he should stick to his current plan. But I’m not sure if we need him back next season–I’d like to wait before I make a judgment. I’d also like to say that I called A-Rod’s home before it happened 
.
Mailbag #2 January 27, 2008
Posted by Pablo Zevallos in 30-rule for Pitchers, Alan Horne, Andy Pettitte, Chien-Ming Wang, Ian Kennedy, Jeff Marquez, Joba Chamberlain, Mike Mussina, Phil Hughes, Robinson Cano.add a comment
Presenting…our second mailbag.
What will the Yankees do with the six major league starters they have on the roster? Does Kennedy get demoted? Or do they skip starts with Chamberlain and Hughes using Kennedy to fill in?–Eric
No one has a definitive answer on that one yet. I think they could extend Hughes to about 160 innings, considering he threw ~146 in 2006 and ~110 this year. Ian Kennedy will be able to throw ~195 innings after throwing ~165 this year. Joba Chamberlain, who threw 112 innings this year, won’t go more than about 140 innings this year. Assuming a healthy starter throws 200 innings a year, and Andy Pettitte and Chien Ming-Wang match their innings total from last year, that leaves 147 innings to be accounted for. This number increases if you account for Joba Chamberlain either starting or finishing the year in the bullpen–let’s say he pitches 100 in the rotation and 40 in the bullpen. That now leaves us with 187 innings to fill. Mike Mussina doesn’t have the stuff, endurance, or adaptability to pitch that much, so let’s say he pitches 140 innings. That now leaves us with 47 innings. Jeff Marquez and Alan Horne will probably be major-league ready by October, and either could pitch in the bullpen in 2008 to start or end the year, and their innings cap will be around 180-185, so either one could step in. So, if you really think about it, you would need seven pitchers to get through the year–meaning Mike Mussina needs to come through.
Maybe you could show some of the commenter’s why the 30 rule is new wave. Look up just a few of them;
W. Ford 112 r, 207, 210, 230 ave.
B. Turley 7.3r, 60.3, 247.3, 212 ave.
M. Stottlemyer, 96.0r, 291.0, 252.7 ave.
F. Peterson, 215.0r, 181.3, 220 ave.
Pettitte, 175.0r, 221.0, 215.7 ave.
Moose, 87.7r, 241.0, 227 ave.
Now, I understand there is much more money involved with pitchers. If the other guys could do it, why can’t the big 3? I realize that one would have to evaluate each pitcher on the merits of pushing them (just a little bit) longer.–Old Ranger
The 30-rule is in place because studies on pitchers have proven that increasing a pitcher’s woarkload by my more than 30 innings a year gives him a significantly higher injury risk for the following season. Throwing a baseball isn’t a natural motion–throwing underhand is. Since most pitchers pitch over-the-top, there is increased stress on the shoulder and elbows when pitching, so it must be controlled. Otherwise, again, there will be injury.
Will Cano be keeping his number, 24? or switching back to 22?–Aubrey
Probably 24–I see no reason to change numbers.
Random Ramblings: Joba, A-Rod, Mussina, Matsui December 11, 2007
Posted by Pablo Zevallos in Alex Rodriguez, Hideki Matsui, Joba Chamberlain, Mike Mussina.3 comments
Imagine a world where Jason Frasor didn’t exist. That’s right, Jason Frasor. Now, not many people know who he is, but that’s OK for the purpose of this excersise.
So now picture Joba Chamberlain…
The whole point is, if Jason Frasor didn’t exist, Joba would have qualified for Type B free agency this year. Very impressive for a rookie reliever who only played in August/September. Now, of course, Joba has almost six full years ahead of him for free agency, but that is just a thought on how good this kid really is, how he has a higher score than players who have been around for ages in a ranking that involves the last two years.
A-ROD DEAL NOT YET FINALIZED The A-Rod deal hasn’t been finalized. It will be a month in four days that the
“preliminary agreement” was announced. And how long will it take for Carl Pavano to be released?
MUSSINA INTERESTS THE PHILLIES YES! We found a match here at YLF! Per MLBTR the Phillies have “mild” interest in Mussina. Again, while the Phillies are close to home for the 39-year-old pitcher, the bandbox nature of the park might turn him off. However, he would get to be a #3/#4 in that rotation (that really says something…)
MATSUI TALKS HEATING UP I wonder who the Yankees might get in return. We’ve heard Jonathan Sanchez and Noah Lowry as possibilities, but that’s just not enough for a player like Matsui. I was thinking more of Matsui + prospect for Matt Cain, the sinkerballing righty who gets good strikeouts for a pticher of his type. He has ace stuff, but will never won’t win in San Francisco with that offense without Barry Bonds. Besides, in terms of ceiling/potential/stuff, the Giants may prefer to keep Lincecum, as any deal that they need to improve the team must involve one of these two young righties.
Evaluating the Likelihood of a Salary Dump Trade December 9, 2007
Posted by Pablo Zevallos in Atlanta Braves, Bobby Abreu, Chicago Cubs, Hideki Matsui, Johnny Damon, Kansas City Royals, Mike Mussina, Phillies, San Diego Padres.5 comments
As we know, the Yankees aren’t fully out on a Johan Santana trade. However, to proceed, they need to rid themselves of their glute of outfielders and pitchers. The likely victims of any such trade would be one of Hideki Matsui, Johnny Damon, Bobby Abreu, and Mike Mussina. The probability of any such deal is evaluated below.
Hideki Matsui, DH/LF, $13M per year for 2008-9 Considering the current market, Matsui is signed reasonably, as he brings to the table good power and contact skills, but below-average defense. Also, waving his no-trade clause likely isn’t a problem. Matsui has been a slight disappointment in New York, as his “Godzilla” moniker hasn’t quite showed up. The Giants are in preliminary talks with the Yankees, and, per Kevin Davidoff of Newsday on November 8th, the Yankees prefer to deal him over Johnny Damon. The Giants are willing to give up Jonathan Sanchez or Noah Lowry, but the Yankees should be able to garner more from such a solid player. If the Yankees sweeten the deal with a prospect–say, Alan Horne or Humberto Sanchez–the Yankees could conceivably get Brian Wilson, the “closer of the future” for the Giants. Include both, and the Yankees have themselves Tim Lincecum. Something can get worked out. Odds: 50%
Johnny Damon, DH/LF/OF, $13M per year fr 2008-9 Damon is overpaid, considering his decline and now lack of impressive skillset. Damon’s range has declined, but he is an average left fielder now. His power isn’t what it was, particularly with his current behemoth of little, nagging injuries that have taken away some of his skills, and his 2006 season, in terms of power, was a fluke. What should be expected next season is a .285/.370/.410 line of some sort, a happy medium between 2006 and 2007. His speed, a large part of his game, also suffers with these injuries. The White Sox have been mentioned with Joe Crede, but Crede isn’t necessary for the Yankees anymore. He could conceivably join the Royals–Justin Huber, a 1B for the Royals, has no place to play, and the Royals have had on-and-off talks with the Braves about moving David DeJesus. Speaking of the Braves, they have also been mentioned in Damon rumors. Money would be somewhat of a concern for both of these teams, and the Yankees would likely have to eat 9 or 10 million of the remainder of the deal. I like the Royal matchup better, as it gives us a power-hitting 1B with 15-20 HR power and isn’t a platoon player. However, Huber’s glove might be a problem. The Braves could probably offer Joey Devine, and I would take that too. But my gut feeling is that, in accord with Davidoff, the Yankees like Damon more than Matsui. Odds: 35%
Bobby Abreu, RF/DH, $16M for 2008 Abreu is also overpaid, considering he is slipping defensively, isn’t a power hitter, and has lost some of his trademark plate discipline. We all knew that Abreu wasn’t going to be the Abreu we got just after the trade, but I would have expected something between 2006 and 2007–again, a happy medium. What makes Abreu attractive is that he has a good arm in right with decent defense, and is also a lefty bat with deceiving speed for his size. His game is more gap power and doubles now, and that’s fine–just not with $16M as he is now. Regardless, he could fetch something good on the market, except that expectations for Abreu in 2008 are that he improves over 2007. That gives him more value to the Yankees than it does to another team, making it a better idea for him to stay. If the Yankees somehow jump into the Kosuke Fukodome race, Abreu is expendable. The Cubs are seeking a lefty bat as well, and there is a very real chance that Fukodome, whom they love, will land with the Padres, a team who offered him a substantial amount of money along with being on the West Coast. That would make Abreu attractives to the Cubs, who could also afford him. Though Sean Gallagher might be a need for the Cubs, he is a potential reap for Abreu. In a dream world, the Yankees could get Jeff Samardzija (RHP) or Tony Thomas (2B), but I would be surprised if that could happen. The Padres could definitely use Abreu, but money might be a concern for them, and the Yankees would have to eat money. The Yankees could reasonably reap Kevin Kouzmanoff, a platoon-playing 3B who is a power bat and could be an improvement over Wilson Betemit, or maybe OF Cedric Hunter. The Yankees definitely don’t have to move him if it’s not a deal they like, especially considering that, if he has a fine season next year, he could be a Type A free agent and net two draft picks. The clear thing is that Abreu will not be back after 2008. Odds: 25%
Mike Mussina, RHP, $11M for 2008 Any deal involving Mussina would have to involve eating money. He simply isn’t worth $11M, especially that Greg Maddux makes 10. Mussina’s stuff really showed a decline–his fastball is around 85 MPH, his changeup wasn’t as good a setup pitch that it was in 2006, and he didn’t have a lot of confidence in all of his pitches, even in his best pitch, his knucklecurve. This deal, however, is one the Yankees should wait to make until Spring Training. The likely event is that Ian Kennedy will beat out Mussina for the 5th starter spot, and, if Joba Chamberlain, Phil Hughes, Andy Pettitte, Chien-Ming Wang, and Kennedy come out of Spring Training healthy, there will be no place for Mussina. He doesn’t like to relieve, being soft a creature of habit, so he will have to be dealt. The only obstacle is his no-trade clause now that he is 10-5 player. He has specifically said that he doesn’t want to pitch in Philadelphia, where, even in the National League, his stuff won’t stand a chance in that bandbox. If he would wave it to go to Philly, though, the Yankees could conceivably re-acquire C Jesus Sanchez and add catching depth to the system. The Yankees could conceivably get Wes Helms, a utility player, or 1B/OF Greg Dobbs. The Padres could also seek an upgrade over de facto 5th starter Justin Germano, and well-traveled former Rule 5 draft pick Wil Ledezma could be a return. Potential fifth OF Jason Lane could also be a reaped return. A little out there would be righty reliever Cla Meredith, but that might involve a package with Kei Igawa, and thus a lot of money-eating. The Yankees have other, better, higher-ceiling arms that can fill in for injured or innings-capped starter. However, manager Joe Girardi might be hesitant in having a rotation with three kids and two veterans. Odds: 25-35%.
Andy Pettitte Declines Option; Tejada to Yankees? November 11, 2007
Posted by Pablo Zevallos in Andy Pettitte, Chicago White Sox, Joe Crede, Johan Santana, Johnny Damon, Kyle Farnsworth, Melky Cabrera, Miguel Tejada, Mike Mussina.add a comment
On Wednesday, Andy Pettitte declined his $16M player option for 2008. This was a move purely to allow him time to decide whether to retire or not. With this, we see that the drama last winter was not all posturing and fake, but real deliberation. The Yankees, in short, would be screwed without having Pettitte on their team, as he provides a healthy lefty who always competes, especially in big games. He is a stopper, but no ace. Now, the Yankees would have Ian Kennedy to take his place in the rotation, but that would force Mike Mussina to start (ugh).
On Thursday, a rumor surfaced: Miguel Tejada to the Yankees. I am not enamored with that deal. In Tejada we have a declining, now league average shortstop that would only be average at third at best, who would not excel in a left-handed hitters’ park, and makes $13 M over the next two years. Even if it takes Kyle Farnsworth off our backs, I’d rather get rid of him for something else than Tejada, considering that it would also take Melky Cabrera in that deal. We can see that Cabrera is increasingly available, but I like what he offers and would only trade him in a Miguel Cabrera situation–Yes, I would rather see him in New York if it were for Johan Santana, because I am not enamored with Santana for reasons I will explain in another post.
Crede-for-Damon dead? It looks like Joe Crede for Johnny Damon talk is dying. Good. This would have been a mismatched trade, and the Yankees certainly would have been on the losing end. Besides, the White Sox have to decide what to do with the man–offer him arbitration (in which he would likely make the roughly $4M he did last year if he accepts), non-tender him, or re-sign him long term and move Josh Fields to LF. No matter what they do, the White Sox aren’t going anywhere next year, either.
Post-Season Roster September 22, 2007
Posted by Pablo Zevallos in Brian Bruney, Doug Mientkewicvz, Edwar Ramirez, Ian Kennedy, Jason Giambi, Jose Veras, Mike Mussina, Phil Hughes, Postseason, Ron Villone, Shelley Duncan, Wilson Betemit.add a comment
Joe Torre has some interesting choices for his postseason roster. Mike Mussina has dominated his last two outings, but they have been against lesser teams that won’t be seen in the postseason. Ian Kennedy has dominated as well, but that was against Tampa Bay (decent lineup, really), Kansas City, and Toronto. Phil Hughes has had a resurgence of late as well, and he is in the mix.
Relievers: At this point, the remaining reliever spots will be two of Jose Veras, Ron Villone, Brian Bruney, and Edwar Ramirez. My gut tells me Veras is the only guarantee here, because he has impressed Torre a lot in September and is one of those no-namers that Torre rides out as long as he can (Tanyon Sturtze, Jeff Karstens, anyone?). The other three have serious flaws, so it will probably be the second-place finisher between that of Hughes, Mussina, and Kennedy. Kennedy, a finesse guy, probably won’t make the roster unless he is a starter, leaving Hughes and Mussina. Joe Torre always like experience, so I’ll say Mussina starts game 4 and Hughes is the long man. If you wonder why I don’t mention Chris Britton, it’s because he hasn’t exactly dominated outside of his 3 innings of long relief back in May, and Torre and Brian Cashman have held him back so much this season I don’t think he really has a shot.
Bench: There is one juicy debate here. The main point is which three of Jason Giambi, Doug Mientkewicvz (did I spell that right?), Shelley Duncan, or Wilson Betemit make the postseason. Without Betemit, the Yankees have no utility infielder, so I’ll assume he makes it despite his BA since coming to NY. Besides, he was the return for the best non-Mo Rivera reliver they had at the time, Scott Proctor, and Brian Cashman & Joe won’t give up on him that quickly. In the postseason, with groundball pitchers like Wang and Pettitte, fielding is important, so I’ll pick Doug Minky for this one. Last, we have two slumping DH/1B types, Shelley Duncan and Jason Giambi. Giambi is the veteran, but he has done much lately. On the other hand, neither has Duncan, but he has been around the postseason as a kid with his dad Dave Duncan and Tony LaRussa with the A’s (coincidentally, with Giambi). However, Duncan plays hard and can also play the corner OF spots, and he is a RH hitter, so I will pick Duncan to make it over Giambi.
This means that the Yankees have four bench players (13 batters) and 12 pitchers. In the postseason, idyllically one would have 13 pitchers and 12 batters, so maybe if one of Villone, Ramirez, or Bruney outshine Giambi/Duncan in the last few days, a pitcher could be taken. However, Ramirez gave up a home run to Alex Rios yesterday in the 8th inning, severely hurting his chances for a roster berth.
Yankees Sweep Baltimore, then Lose Heartbreaker in 14 September 22, 2007
Posted by Pablo Zevallos in Andy Pettitte, Baltimore Orioles, Brian Bruney, Chien-Ming Wang, Edwar Ramirez, Greg Zaun, Hideki Matsui, Jason Frasor, Joe Kennedy, Melky Cabrera, Mike Mussina, Phil Hughes, Roy Halladay.add a comment
The Yankees swept Baltimore between Monday and Wednesday, receiving great pitching from Phil Hughes, Mike Mussina, and Andy Pettitte. The offense clicked in the first two games before Brian Burres shut down the Yankees again despite losing. Hideki Matsui seems to have climbed out of his funk, while Melky Cabrera continues to sink into his. A-Rod set his career-high in RBI’s last night, but before his 2-6 yesterday he was slumping as well.
Yesterday, Chien-Ming Wang gave up 6 H and 2 runs (1 earned) in 7 innings, K’ing 4 and walking 1. Edwar Ramirez relieved him only to give up another home run. However, no offense through the first 8 innings had Roy Halladay, Toronto’s ace, pitching in the 9th inning with a 4-run lead. With an error by Aaron Hill, the Yankees then crept up and tied it in the 9th, before sending it to extras.
The Yankees only managed a hit and a walk against the 5 Toronto pitchers, and while the Yankee pitchers were on a similar pace, Brian Bruney, gave up a homer to Greg Zaun (sad, ain’t it?) and then Joe Kennedy (not, not JFK’s daddy) and Jason Frasor shut them down. Horrible loss
Yankees Lose to Tampa, Seattle September 3, 2007
Posted by Pablo Zevallos in Alex Rodriguez, Andy Pettitte, Austin Jackson, Chris Britton, Edwar Ramirez, GCL Yankees, Ichiro, Kyle Farnsworth, Marcos Vechionacci, Mike Mussina, Roger Clemens, Trenton Thunder.add a comment
Andy Pettitte had a nice outing until the seventh, where he served up a fat one to Carlos Pena and he homered as the Yankees lost, 8-2. Melky Cabrera singled in a run and Bobby Abreu tripled in Johnny Damon for the only Yankee runs. On the flip side, Edwar Ramirez pitched, and gave up homers to Josh Wilson and Akinori Iwamura. His fastball is decent and changeup are nice, but he needs to add another pitch–maybe a slider or curveball. Maybe Mo can teach his successor the cutter.
Today, I went to the game, and Rocket was just terrible. His command was spotty, and he served up 8 hits in 4 innings, as well as a homer to Ichiro. His fastball was back down to 89-90, bottoming out at 87 and topping out at 91. His pitches didn’t have much break, but he threw a nice 86 mph splitter to strike out Kenji Johjima in the second.
Mike Mussina relieved–not sure how 7 hits in 3.2 innings can be relief in my heart, but…he gave up 2 runs and 3 doubles before being pulled for Chris Britton. Kyle Farnsworth-less pitched an inning of electric stuff, K’ing 2.
A-Rod singled in a run in the first, and also burned Ichiro trying to stretch a single to a double…after that, it was all Mariners.
Vechionnaci Promoted As I pointed out on August 16th, I speculated that Marcos Vechionnaci, the slick-fielding Yankee shortstop would be promoted to AA due to his advanced fielding and hot hitting. A couple of days ago, he was promoted for the stretch run for AA, which I am glad to see.
Jackson Promoted The Yankees’ beast prospect was promoted to AAA for the stretch run. I’m anxious to see what he does there, because he can begin next year AA and ascend to MLB, almost like Joba and IPK did this year.
Rookie Yanks are GCL Champions The GCL Yankees beat the GCL Dodgers to win the Gulf Coast League Championship. Kudos to them and to Jesus Montero, who seems to have fully recovered from his ankle injury and hit his 4th homer.
Mussina Gets Violated, Replaced by Ian Kennedy August 29, 2007
Posted by Pablo Zevallos in AL East, Andy Pettitte, Boston Red Sox, Ian Kennedy, Johnny Damon, Mike Mussina.2 comments
According to Baseball Tonight and Peter Abraham, Ian Kennedy has been called up to take Mike Mussina’s rotation spot, at least for not. I’m not sure who they sent down by I’ll have that for you later.
This is only natural since IPK is the best pitcher in this farm system and is more than ready to take control of MLB hitters–his ratios are insane, but he just needs to work on throwing less pitches. Mussina has gotten violated in his last three starts, and he has no fastball and has been hugely inconsistent. And, he’s 38 years, too.
Rants of the Day:
At least the deficit is now only 7 games behind Boston after a nice win yesterday.
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Seems like Andy Pettitte might actually get to 200 wins this year after all, as he is at 198 already.
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I don’t know…maybe Johnny Damon can actually play. Sorry folks, I only mean left field and DH..
Sorry for the delay August 27, 2007
Posted by Pablo Zevallos in Andy Pettitte, Detroit Tigers, Hideki Matsui, Houston Astros, Mike Mussina, Phil Garner, Phil Hughes, Roger Clemens, Tim Purpura.add a comment
Readers, I apologize for the delay in posting. The Yankees have, as you know, lost two of three as so far against the Detroit Tigers. Phil Franchise was decent, as Hideki Matsui misplayed the inside-the-park-homer, and the two home runs were the only blemish. I’m not concerned, and I think he’ll straighten himself out.
The now I’m-not-worried-about-my-job-although-I-should-be Mike Mussina is on the hill tonight. If the Yankees would’ve won the first three games, I would be rooting for him to get blasted so we can have Steven White or anyone takeover. However, he and his 85 MPH fastball are going to have to eat it and win today…or else.
In other news
1) Over at Minor League Ball, there was a piece about future lineups for every team, and here is the Yankees’ part, done by. If you have been faithfully reading this blog (which I hope you do), I have done many pieces on the Yankees and their minor league system (hence the name, Yankees: Looking to the Future) and our current overpaid stars’ future replacements.
2) Roger Clemens and Andy Pettitte must be sad today. Their former Houston Astros manager and general manger, Phil Garner and Tim Purpura, respectively, have been fired. Well, the Astros have stunk for the last two years–what can I say.
